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Vision 2030 and Defense Modernization in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Kunny, Peter Keck LU (2026) SIMZ41 20261
Master of Science in Middle Eastern Studies
Abstract
This study examines the defense modernization efforts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Vision 2030, together with the institutional architecture of GAMI and SAMI, sets an ambitious target of 50% defense localization by 2030. While official reports assert steady progress in upstream industrial capabilities, this study asks whether these efforts have been as successful as claimed. The research question follows: How do Gulf states, specifically Saudi Arabia, balance technological dependence on external partners (primarily the United States) with the pursuit of strategic autonomy in defense modernization amid intensifying great-power competition? Hedging strategies and pragmatic multi-alignment are seen as essential theoretical frames to... (More)
This study examines the defense modernization efforts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Vision 2030, together with the institutional architecture of GAMI and SAMI, sets an ambitious target of 50% defense localization by 2030. While official reports assert steady progress in upstream industrial capabilities, this study asks whether these efforts have been as successful as claimed. The research question follows: How do Gulf states, specifically Saudi Arabia, balance technological dependence on external partners (primarily the United States) with the pursuit of strategic autonomy in defense modernization amid intensifying great-power competition? Hedging strategies and pragmatic multi-alignment are seen as essential theoretical frames to understanding this. The analysis reveals that KSA has pursued a distinctive ‘disaggregated supply-chain logic’ or ‘disaggregating localization’: the deliberate front-loading of foreign technological dependence in the short term in order to mature critical upstream nodes while progressively internalising higher-value production stages. This approach, examined through neoclassical realism and MENA-specific lenses, converts external partnerships into incremental domestic capacity without rupturing core security relationships. Comparative insights from the UAE, Turkey, and Israel, alongside recent empirical trends (including selective Chinese engagement in niche domains), illustrate both the potential and the persistent constraints of rentier-state localization. The success of Vision 2030 and similar initiatives by 2030 will ultimately depend on the effective implementation of this disaggregated logic amid great-power competition and domestic regime security imperatives. (Less)
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author
Kunny, Peter Keck LU
supervisor
organization
course
SIMZ41 20261
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Saudi Arabia, Gulf, defense policy, defense industry, security, strategic autonomy, arms industry, defense localization, Vision 2030, hedging, disaggregated supply-chain logic, neoclassical realism, multi-alignment, rentier state
language
English
id
9241107
date added to LUP
2026-06-25 10:53:53
date last changed
2026-06-25 10:53:53
@misc{9241107,
  abstract     = {{This study examines the defense modernization efforts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Vision 2030, together with the institutional architecture of GAMI and SAMI, sets an ambitious target of 50% defense localization by 2030. While official reports assert steady progress in upstream industrial capabilities, this study asks whether these efforts have been as successful as claimed. The research question follows: How do Gulf states, specifically Saudi Arabia, balance technological dependence on external partners (primarily the United States) with the pursuit of strategic autonomy in defense modernization amid intensifying great-power competition? Hedging strategies and pragmatic multi-alignment are seen as essential theoretical frames to understanding this. The analysis reveals that KSA has pursued a distinctive ‘disaggregated supply-chain logic’ or ‘disaggregating localization’: the deliberate front-loading of foreign technological dependence in the short term in order to mature critical upstream nodes while progressively internalising higher-value production stages. This approach, examined through neoclassical realism and MENA-specific lenses, converts external partnerships into incremental domestic capacity without rupturing core security relationships. Comparative insights from the UAE, Turkey, and Israel, alongside recent empirical trends (including selective Chinese engagement in niche domains), illustrate both the potential and the persistent constraints of rentier-state localization. The success of Vision 2030 and similar initiatives by 2030 will ultimately depend on the effective implementation of this disaggregated logic amid great-power competition and domestic regime security imperatives.}},
  author       = {{Kunny, Peter Keck}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Vision 2030 and Defense Modernization in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}