Advanced

Estimating and Predicting International Tourism Demand in Sweden

Nordström, Jonas LU (2004) In Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism 4(1). p.59-76
Abstract
In this study, we consider a dynamic demand model for international tourism. The model is used to estimate separate demand functions for hotel and cottage visitors from different countries, with a multivariate structural time series model. Among other things, the estimated models are used to simulate the effects on international tourism demand in Sweden of an increase in the value added tax on typical tourism products. The results reveal that the price sensitivity differs considerably between various visitor groups. The largest effect is found for Norwegian visitors, while there is no significant effect for Danish ones. The forecast accuracy of the demand model is also evaluated. The results indicate that a pure structural time series... (More)
In this study, we consider a dynamic demand model for international tourism. The model is used to estimate separate demand functions for hotel and cottage visitors from different countries, with a multivariate structural time series model. Among other things, the estimated models are used to simulate the effects on international tourism demand in Sweden of an increase in the value added tax on typical tourism products. The results reveal that the price sensitivity differs considerably between various visitor groups. The largest effect is found for Norwegian visitors, while there is no significant effect for Danish ones. The forecast accuracy of the demand model is also evaluated. The results indicate that a pure structural time series model performs as well as a model with explanatory variables. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism
volume
4
issue
1
pages
59 - 76
publisher
Taylor & Francis
ISSN
1502-2250
DOI
10.1080/15022250410006408
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
667811bf-5ad2-423d-a884-f31032239df4 (old id 1736875)
date added to LUP
2010-12-21 13:53:27
date last changed
2016-10-03 11:06:02
@misc{667811bf-5ad2-423d-a884-f31032239df4,
  abstract     = {In this study, we consider a dynamic demand model for international tourism. The model is used to estimate separate demand functions for hotel and cottage visitors from different countries, with a multivariate structural time series model. Among other things, the estimated models are used to simulate the effects on international tourism demand in Sweden of an increase in the value added tax on typical tourism products. The results reveal that the price sensitivity differs considerably between various visitor groups. The largest effect is found for Norwegian visitors, while there is no significant effect for Danish ones. The forecast accuracy of the demand model is also evaluated. The results indicate that a pure structural time series model performs as well as a model with explanatory variables.},
  author       = {Nordström, Jonas},
  issn         = {1502-2250},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {59--76},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x8214358)},
  series       = {Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism},
  title        = {Estimating and Predicting International Tourism Demand in Sweden},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15022250410006408},
  volume       = {4},
  year         = {2004},
}