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Tailored climate indices for climate-proofing operational forestry applications in Sweden and Finland

Bärring, Lars LU ; Berlin, Mats and Andersson Gull, Bengt (2016) In International Journal of Climatology
Abstract

ABSTRACT: In the light of the observed and projected regional warming trend in northern Europe, new recommendations are needed for climate-proofing the selection of forest trees seedlings and growth estimates. Drawing on recently developed climate data sets, both observations of the recent past, and scenarios for the future we present and analyse a set of climate indices tailored to be used for operational forestry applications. Data covering Sweden and Finland include two high-resolution gridded observational data sets of daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation for the period 1961-2007, and an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections based on forcing data from six global scenarios representing a medium high... (More)

ABSTRACT: In the light of the observed and projected regional warming trend in northern Europe, new recommendations are needed for climate-proofing the selection of forest trees seedlings and growth estimates. Drawing on recently developed climate data sets, both observations of the recent past, and scenarios for the future we present and analyse a set of climate indices tailored to be used for operational forestry applications. Data covering Sweden and Finland include two high-resolution gridded observational data sets of daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation for the period 1961-2007, and an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections based on forcing data from six global scenarios representing a medium high emission scenario. The observation-based data sets are used as reference in two ways; as reference for downscaling and bias-adjustment of daily data from the regional scenarios and to highlight recent observed climate changes and how these changes are represented in the RCM ensemble. For seasonal temperature and related climate indices, there is a clear change towards warmer conditions between the two periods 1961-1990 and 1988-2007, most clearly seen in the observational data and less pronounced in the RCM ensemble. For the future period 2035-2065, 'mid-century', the medium high scenario ensemble used in this study shows substantial changes to several key indices relevant to forestry applications.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Bias-correction, Climate impacts, Forest growth and adaptation, Observed climate change, Scandinavia, Sustainable forests
in
International Journal of Climatology
publisher
John Wiley & Sons
external identifiers
  • Scopus:84961797429
ISSN
0899-8418
DOI
10.1002/joc.4691
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4d903b68-027a-4b87-a5ff-12689db28b1c
date added to LUP
2016-09-21 12:00:53
date last changed
2016-09-21 12:00:53
@misc{4d903b68-027a-4b87-a5ff-12689db28b1c,
  abstract     = {<p>ABSTRACT: In the light of the observed and projected regional warming trend in northern Europe, new recommendations are needed for climate-proofing the selection of forest trees seedlings and growth estimates. Drawing on recently developed climate data sets, both observations of the recent past, and scenarios for the future we present and analyse a set of climate indices tailored to be used for operational forestry applications. Data covering Sweden and Finland include two high-resolution gridded observational data sets of daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation for the period 1961-2007, and an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections based on forcing data from six global scenarios representing a medium high emission scenario. The observation-based data sets are used as reference in two ways; as reference for downscaling and bias-adjustment of daily data from the regional scenarios and to highlight recent observed climate changes and how these changes are represented in the RCM ensemble. For seasonal temperature and related climate indices, there is a clear change towards warmer conditions between the two periods 1961-1990 and 1988-2007, most clearly seen in the observational data and less pronounced in the RCM ensemble. For the future period 2035-2065, 'mid-century', the medium high scenario ensemble used in this study shows substantial changes to several key indices relevant to forestry applications.</p>},
  author       = {Bärring, Lars and Berlin, Mats and Andersson Gull, Bengt},
  issn         = {0899-8418},
  keyword      = {Bias-correction,Climate impacts,Forest growth and adaptation,Observed climate change,Scandinavia,Sustainable forests},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {03},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x8aef980)},
  series       = {International Journal of Climatology},
  title        = {Tailored climate indices for climate-proofing operational forestry applications in Sweden and Finland},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4691},
  year         = {2016},
}