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Are there house effects in Swedish polls? A compositional approach

Bergman, Jakob LU (2015) In Working Papers in Statistics
Abstract
We investigate if we can find evidence of house effects in Swedish political opinion polls from 2006 to 2014. In order to respect the inherent restriction of the simplex sample space, we apply compositional data analysis and Aitchison geometry. We use compositional locally weighted regression (C-loess) to estimate the share of voters for each party at given dates, a poll of polls. The estimated shares are compared to the poll(s) for that date using simplicial distances and compositional deviations (inverse perturbation). We can conclude that neither the mean simplicial distance nor the mean compositional deviation are equal for all polling organisations, also when controlling for different sample sizes and limiting the sample to only the... (More)
We investigate if we can find evidence of house effects in Swedish political opinion polls from 2006 to 2014. In order to respect the inherent restriction of the simplex sample space, we apply compositional data analysis and Aitchison geometry. We use compositional locally weighted regression (C-loess) to estimate the share of voters for each party at given dates, a poll of polls. The estimated shares are compared to the poll(s) for that date using simplicial distances and compositional deviations (inverse perturbation). We can conclude that neither the mean simplicial distance nor the mean compositional deviation are equal for all polling organisations, also when controlling for different sample sizes and limiting the sample to only the last two years. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Working Paper
publication status
published
subject
keywords
House effects, Compositional data analysis, Simplicial distance, Aitchison geometry, Polls, Sweden, Poll of polls
in
Working Papers in Statistics
issue
1
pages
10 pages
publisher
Department of Statistics, Lund university
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c66befbe-deaa-4b4d-852f-9bb56a6107c5 (old id 8052812)
alternative location
http://journals.lub.lu.se/index.php/stat/article/view/15032
date added to LUP
2015-10-07 13:29:44
date last changed
2016-04-16 08:24:13
@misc{c66befbe-deaa-4b4d-852f-9bb56a6107c5,
  abstract     = {We investigate if we can find evidence of house effects in Swedish political opinion polls from 2006 to 2014. In order to respect the inherent restriction of the simplex sample space, we apply compositional data analysis and Aitchison geometry. We use compositional locally weighted regression (C-loess) to estimate the share of voters for each party at given dates, a poll of polls. The estimated shares are compared to the poll(s) for that date using simplicial distances and compositional deviations (inverse perturbation). We can conclude that neither the mean simplicial distance nor the mean compositional deviation are equal for all polling organisations, also when controlling for different sample sizes and limiting the sample to only the last two years.},
  author       = {Bergman, Jakob},
  keyword      = {House effects,Compositional data analysis,Simplicial distance,Aitchison geometry,Polls,Sweden,Poll of polls},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {10},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x964de68)},
  series       = {Working Papers in Statistics},
  title        = {Are there house effects in Swedish polls? A compositional approach},
  year         = {2015},
}