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Ekonomisk tillväxt i välfärdskapitalismen. En jämförande studie av BNP per capita-tillväxten i rika OECD-länder 1970-2000

Stjärnhagen, Ola LU (2015) In Lund Dissertations in Sociology 112.
Abstract (Swedish)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

I början på 1990-talet drabbades Sverige av en mycket djup ekonomisk kris. Den svenska nittiotalskrisen uppfattades inte som en tillfällig konjunkturnedgång utan som symptom på grundläggande systemfel i Sveriges ekonomi. Många bedömare menade att den s.k. svenska modellen med stor välfärdsstat och höga skatter hade försämrat marknadsekonomins effektivitet och gjort att Sverige under lång tid halkat efter andra länder ekonomiskt. Syftet med avhandlingen är att empiriskt pröva hypotesen att en stor välfärdsstat hämmar den ekonomiska tillväxten. I avhandlingen försöker jag besvara två frågor: Har Sverige haft en lägre ekonomisk tillväxt än andra OECD-länder under perioden 1951-2000? Har länder med... (More)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

I början på 1990-talet drabbades Sverige av en mycket djup ekonomisk kris. Den svenska nittiotalskrisen uppfattades inte som en tillfällig konjunkturnedgång utan som symptom på grundläggande systemfel i Sveriges ekonomi. Många bedömare menade att den s.k. svenska modellen med stor välfärdsstat och höga skatter hade försämrat marknadsekonomins effektivitet och gjort att Sverige under lång tid halkat efter andra länder ekonomiskt. Syftet med avhandlingen är att empiriskt pröva hypotesen att en stor välfärdsstat hämmar den ekonomiska tillväxten. I avhandlingen försöker jag besvara två frågor: Har Sverige haft en lägre ekonomisk tillväxt än andra OECD-länder under perioden 1951-2000? Har länder med mer omfattande politiska ingripanden i marknadskrafterna lägre ekonomisk tillväxt än länder med friare ekonomier? Graden av politiska ingrepp i marknadsekonomin mäts på ett antal olika sätt: totala offentliga utgifter, sociala transfereringar, offentlig konsumtion samt Economic Freedom of the World Index. Jag jämför den procentuella BNP per capita-tillväxten i Sverige och 16 andra OECD-länder under perioden 1951-2000. Med en genomsnittlig tillväxt per år på 2,3 procent ligger Sverige klart under medelvärdet som är 2,8 procent. Men jämförelsen visar också att ett flertal andra länder har en lika låg eller lägre tillväxt än Sverige. Jag finner att länder som vid undersökningsperiodens början har en lägre BNP per capita-nivå tenderar att få en snabbare tillväxt än länder med högre BNP per capita-nivå (upphinnareffekt). Jag skattar ett antal paneldataregressioner med fixa effekter där procentuell BNP per capita-tillväxt regresseras på olika variabler som nämns i den vetenskapliga litteraturen om ekonomisk tillväxt. De empiriska analyserna omfattar 16 respektive 17 länder under perioden 1970-2000. Analyserna ger mycket varierande och svårtolkade resultat. Men hypotesen att länder med friare ekonomier har en högre ekonomisk tillväxt än länder med mer reglerad ekonomi får visst stöd. En viktig generell lärdom som kan dras av avhandlingen är att det är svårt att använda regressionsanalys på aggregerade länderdata för att uttala sig om vilken effekt offentlig sektor-storlek har för den ekonomiska tillväxten. Sammantaget har det i avhandlingen visat sig inte vara möjligt att fastställa något orsakssamband mellan den svenska välfärdsstaten och det faktum att Sveriges ekonomiska tillväxt varit lägre än i flera andra länder under efterkrigstiden. (Less)
Abstract
In the early 1990s, Sweden was hit by a profound economic crisis. The Swedish crisis of the nineties was not perceived as a temporary recession, but rather as a fundamental and systemic fault in Swedish economy. Many commentators held that the Swedish model with a large welfare state and high taxes had impaired Sweden's economic performance. The aim of this thesis is to empirically assess the hypothesis that a large welfare state impedes economic growth. I try to answer two research questions: (1) Did Sweden have a lower economic growth than other OECD countries during the period 1951-2000? (2) Do countries with more extensive political influence over market forces have a lower economic growth than countries with a freer economy? I measure... (More)
In the early 1990s, Sweden was hit by a profound economic crisis. The Swedish crisis of the nineties was not perceived as a temporary recession, but rather as a fundamental and systemic fault in Swedish economy. Many commentators held that the Swedish model with a large welfare state and high taxes had impaired Sweden's economic performance. The aim of this thesis is to empirically assess the hypothesis that a large welfare state impedes economic growth. I try to answer two research questions: (1) Did Sweden have a lower economic growth than other OECD countries during the period 1951-2000? (2) Do countries with more extensive political influence over market forces have a lower economic growth than countries with a freer economy? I measure the degree of political influence over the market economy in a number of ways: the total outlays of government, social security transfers, government final consumption expenditures and the Economic Freedom of the World Index. I compared the GDP per capita growth as a percentage in Sweden and 16 other OECD countries during the period 1951-2000. With an average annual growth of 2.3 per cent, Sweden is clearly below the mean value of 2.8 per cent. But the comparison also revealed that a number of other countries are experiencing just as low or even a lower growth than Sweden. I found that countries with a lower GDP per capita at the start of the investigative period tend to gain a quicker growth than countries with a higher GDP per capita (often refered to catch-up effect). I estimated a number of panel data regressions with fixed effects, where the GDP per capita growth as a percentage is regressed on different variables given in the academic literature on economic growth. The empirical analyses covered 16 and 17 countries during the period 1970-2000. The analyses produced varied results which are difficult to interpret. But the hypothesis that countries with a freer market economy have a higher GDP per capita growth than other countries with a more regulated market economy received some empirical support. One important general lesson that can be learned from this thesis is that it is difficult to use regression analysis on aggregated country data in order to discuss the effect of the size of the public sector on economic growth. Overall, it has proven impossible in the thesis to establish a causal connection between the Swedish welfare state and the fact that Sweden's economic growth has been lower than that of several other countries during the post-war period. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Professor Nelson, Kenneth, Stockholms universitet
organization
alternative title
Economic Growth in Welfare Capitalism. A Comparative Study of GDP per capita Growth in Rich OECD Countries 1970-2000
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
välfärdsstat, sociologi, comparative research, Swedish model, economic sociology, macro sociology, economic growth, welfare regimes, welfare state, welfare capitalism
in
Lund Dissertations in Sociology
volume
112
pages
168 pages
defense location
Hörsal 128, Stora Algatan 4, Lund
defense date
2015-11-24 10:15
ISSN
1102-4712
ISBN
978-91-7623-491-4 (Pdf)
978-91-7623-490-7 (Tryck)
language
Swedish
LU publication?
yes
id
05522605-9fe9-4cb0-9743-a3baf98823bc (old id 8146829)
date added to LUP
2015-10-30 12:42:41
date last changed
2016-09-19 08:45:00
@misc{05522605-9fe9-4cb0-9743-a3baf98823bc,
  abstract     = {In the early 1990s, Sweden was hit by a profound economic crisis. The Swedish crisis of the nineties was not perceived as a temporary recession, but rather as a fundamental and systemic fault in Swedish economy. Many commentators held that the Swedish model with a large welfare state and high taxes had impaired Sweden's economic performance. The aim of this thesis is to empirically assess the hypothesis that a large welfare state impedes economic growth. I try to answer two research questions: (1) Did Sweden have a lower economic growth than other OECD countries during the period 1951-2000? (2) Do countries with more extensive political influence over market forces have a lower economic growth than countries with a freer economy? I measure the degree of political influence over the market economy in a number of ways: the total outlays of government, social security transfers, government final consumption expenditures and the Economic Freedom of the World Index. I compared the GDP per capita growth as a percentage in Sweden and 16 other OECD countries during the period 1951-2000. With an average annual growth of 2.3 per cent, Sweden is clearly below the mean value of 2.8 per cent. But the comparison also revealed that a number of other countries are experiencing just as low or even a lower growth than Sweden. I found that countries with a lower GDP per capita at the start of the investigative period tend to gain a quicker growth than countries with a higher GDP per capita (often refered to catch-up effect). I estimated a number of panel data regressions with fixed effects, where the GDP per capita growth as a percentage is regressed on different variables given in the academic literature on economic growth. The empirical analyses covered 16 and 17 countries during the period 1970-2000. The analyses produced varied results which are difficult to interpret. But the hypothesis that countries with a freer market economy have a higher GDP per capita growth than other countries with a more regulated market economy received some empirical support. One important general lesson that can be learned from this thesis is that it is difficult to use regression analysis on aggregated country data in order to discuss the effect of the size of the public sector on economic growth. Overall, it has proven impossible in the thesis to establish a causal connection between the Swedish welfare state and the fact that Sweden's economic growth has been lower than that of several other countries during the post-war period.},
  author       = {Stjärnhagen, Ola},
  isbn         = {978-91-7623-491-4 (Pdf)},
  issn         = {1102-4712},
  keyword      = {välfärdsstat,sociologi,comparative research,Swedish model,economic sociology,macro sociology,economic growth,welfare regimes,welfare state,welfare capitalism},
  language     = {swe},
  pages        = {168},
  series       = {Lund Dissertations in Sociology},
  title        = {Ekonomisk tillväxt i välfärdskapitalismen. En jämförande studie av BNP per capita-tillväxten i rika OECD-länder 1970-2000},
  volume       = {112},
  year         = {2015},
}