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Estimating and analyzing savannah phenology with a lagged time series model

Boke-Olén, Niklas LU ; Lehsten, Veiko LU ; Ardö, Jonas LU ; Beringer, Jason; Eklundh, Lars LU ; Holst, Thomas LU ; Veenendaal, Elmar and Tagesson, Torbern LU (2016) In PLoS One 11(4).
Abstract

Savannah regions are predicted to undergo changes in precipitation patterns according to current climate change projections. This change will affect leaf phenology, which controls net primary productivity. It is of importance to study this since savannahs play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical... (More)

Savannah regions are predicted to undergo changes in precipitation patterns according to current climate change projections. This change will affect leaf phenology, which controls net primary productivity. It is of importance to study this since savannahs play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r2 of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore expect similar average results when applying the model to other savannah areas and further expect that it could be used to estimate the productivity of savannah regions.

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author
organization
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
PLoS One
volume
11
issue
4
publisher
Public Library of Science
external identifiers
  • Scopus:84967239992
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0154615
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
b4a9221a-850e-4f01-8769-80b6d6465541
date added to LUP
2016-05-25 09:06:41
date last changed
2016-11-14 12:48:14
@misc{b4a9221a-850e-4f01-8769-80b6d6465541,
  abstract     = {<p>Savannah regions are predicted to undergo changes in precipitation patterns according to current climate change projections. This change will affect leaf phenology, which controls net primary productivity. It is of importance to study this since savannahs play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r<sup>2</sup> of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore expect similar average results when applying the model to other savannah areas and further expect that it could be used to estimate the productivity of savannah regions.</p>},
  author       = {Boke-Olén, Niklas and Lehsten, Veiko and Ardö, Jonas and Beringer, Jason and Eklundh, Lars and Holst, Thomas and Veenendaal, Elmar and Tagesson, Torbern},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {04},
  number       = {4},
  publisher    = {ARRAY(0x99459a8)},
  series       = {PLoS One},
  title        = {Estimating and analyzing savannah phenology with a lagged time series model},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0154615},
  volume       = {11},
  year         = {2016},
}