Noise colour and the risk of population extinctions
(1996) In Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences 263(1377). p.17511753 Abstract
 A recurrent problem in ecology and conservation biology is to estimate the risk of population extinctions. Extinction probabilities are not only imperative for conservation and management, but may also elucidate basic mechanisms of the regulation of natural populations. The usual way of modelling stochastic influence on population dynamics has been to assume that the external noise is uncorrelated. This means that each and every randomly drawn noise value is totally independent on previous ones. This is what is generally called 'white' noise. However, the noise itself can be temporally autocorrelated. That is, the values of the random numbers used in the noise process will depend on previous ones. Here we show that the autocorrelation, or... (More)
 A recurrent problem in ecology and conservation biology is to estimate the risk of population extinctions. Extinction probabilities are not only imperative for conservation and management, but may also elucidate basic mechanisms of the regulation of natural populations. The usual way of modelling stochastic influence on population dynamics has been to assume that the external noise is uncorrelated. This means that each and every randomly drawn noise value is totally independent on previous ones. This is what is generally called 'white' noise. However, the noise itself can be temporally autocorrelated. That is, the values of the random numbers used in the noise process will depend on previous ones. Here we show that the autocorrelation, or colour, of the external noise assumed to influence population dynamics strongly modifies estimated extinction probabilities. For positively autocorrelated ('red') noise, the risk of extinction clearly decreases the stronger the autocorrelation is. Negatively autocorrelated ('blue') noise is more ambiguously related to extinction probability. Thus, the commonly assumed white noise in population modelling will severely bias population extinction risk estimates. Moreover, the extinction probability estimates are also significantly dependent on model structure which calls for a cautious use of traditional discretetime models. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/record/fd6bb773ebda42a6902083b10f4e2b09
 author
 Ripa, J. ^{LU} and Lundberg, P. ^{LU}
 publishing date
 19960823
 type
 Contribution to journal
 publication status
 published
 subject
 keywords
 article, ecology, natural population, nonhuman, population dynamics, population model, priority journal, white noise, utdöenderisk, variabel miljö, stokastisk
 in
 Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
 volume
 263
 issue
 1377
 pages
 3 pages
 publisher
 Royal Society
 external identifiers

 Scopus:0030411203
 ISSN
 14712954
 DOI
 10.1098/rspb.1996.0256
 language
 English
 LU publication?
 no
 id
 fd6bb773ebda42a6902083b10f4e2b09
 date added to LUP
 20160823 15:48:15
 date last changed
 20160901 13:20:00
@misc{fd6bb773ebda42a6902083b10f4e2b09, abstract = {A recurrent problem in ecology and conservation biology is to estimate the risk of population extinctions. Extinction probabilities are not only imperative for conservation and management, but may also elucidate basic mechanisms of the regulation of natural populations. The usual way of modelling stochastic influence on population dynamics has been to assume that the external noise is uncorrelated. This means that each and every randomly drawn noise value is totally independent on previous ones. This is what is generally called 'white' noise. However, the noise itself can be temporally autocorrelated. That is, the values of the random numbers used in the noise process will depend on previous ones. Here we show that the autocorrelation, or colour, of the external noise assumed to influence population dynamics strongly modifies estimated extinction probabilities. For positively autocorrelated ('red') noise, the risk of extinction clearly decreases the stronger the autocorrelation is. Negatively autocorrelated ('blue') noise is more ambiguously related to extinction probability. Thus, the commonly assumed white noise in population modelling will severely bias population extinction risk estimates. Moreover, the extinction probability estimates are also significantly dependent on model structure which calls for a cautious use of traditional discretetime models.}, author = {Ripa, J. and Lundberg, P.}, issn = {14712954}, keyword = {article,ecology,natural population,nonhuman,population dynamics,population model,priority journal,white noise,utdöenderisk, variabel miljö, stokastisk}, language = {eng}, month = {08}, number = {1377}, pages = {17511753}, publisher = {ARRAY(0xc772fe8)}, series = {Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences}, title = {Noise colour and the risk of population extinctions}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1996.0256}, volume = {263}, year = {1996}, }