Climate change effects on the sub-Saharan agriculture- a case study in Kenya on maize growth and adaptation options
(2019) In Student thesis series INES NGEM01 20191Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- Abstract
- Climate change is progressively advancing, and is affecting the entire globe, with some areas more vulnerable than others. Among them, the sub-Saharan Africa, with a very low adaptive capacity, mainly relies on one economic sector: agriculture. Due to its high climate-dependency, agriculture is at elevated risk.
Among the different staple crops produced in the sub-Saharan Africa, maize is the most cultivated, and partly guarantees food security. However, climate change is projected to lower maize yields, negatively affecting some parts of the region which already suffers high levels of famine.
In this study, two maize varieties based on their sowing date, early and late, are modelled in three diverse sites in Kenya under the RCP8.5... (More) - Climate change is progressively advancing, and is affecting the entire globe, with some areas more vulnerable than others. Among them, the sub-Saharan Africa, with a very low adaptive capacity, mainly relies on one economic sector: agriculture. Due to its high climate-dependency, agriculture is at elevated risk.
Among the different staple crops produced in the sub-Saharan Africa, maize is the most cultivated, and partly guarantees food security. However, climate change is projected to lower maize yields, negatively affecting some parts of the region which already suffers high levels of famine.
In this study, two maize varieties based on their sowing date, early and late, are modelled in three diverse sites in Kenya under the RCP8.5 scenario using climate data retrieved from CORDEX for temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, from 1951 to 2100. Early and late maize yields and biomass was simulated using the crop model AquaCrop, developed by FAO. In parallel, important temperature-dependent maize development thresholds was specifically analyzed. The results indicated lower early maize biomass and yields in a future climate change scenario. This outcome suggested the late sowing maize variety as the most suitable adaptation option for the three sites in Kenya. Furthermore, the limitation of AquaCrop of only simulating year-by-year was discussed. It is therefore suggested to run model simulations on a longer time span in order to better project future climate change impacts. This study can contribute to the work of assessing climate change derived social implications in the sub-Saharan Africa, such as future food security and migrations. (Less) - Popular Abstract
- Nowadays, the word climate change often appears. This phenomenon is progressively advancing, and is affecting the entire globe. However, some areas are more vulnerable than others. Among them, the sub-Saharan Africa. The concern for this region arises from many reasons. Just to mention a few, it has a very low adaptive capacity, poverty and famine levels are quite spread, and the overall political, economic and social settings are weak. Another important factor is related to agriculture. As a matter of fact, the sub-Saharan Africa mainly relies on this economic sector which is, however, an extreme climate-dependent activity. Therefore, facing future climate changes, this feature makes it at elevated risk. In this frame, the practice of... (More)
- Nowadays, the word climate change often appears. This phenomenon is progressively advancing, and is affecting the entire globe. However, some areas are more vulnerable than others. Among them, the sub-Saharan Africa. The concern for this region arises from many reasons. Just to mention a few, it has a very low adaptive capacity, poverty and famine levels are quite spread, and the overall political, economic and social settings are weak. Another important factor is related to agriculture. As a matter of fact, the sub-Saharan Africa mainly relies on this economic sector which is, however, an extreme climate-dependent activity. Therefore, facing future climate changes, this feature makes it at elevated risk. In this frame, the practice of modelling takes place. Among its various applications, one is to find ways to tackle adversities induced by climate change. It is therefore useful for the development of the so-called adaptation strategies, whose prime purpose is to adapt to an altered condition.
Many crops are cultivated in the sub-Saharan Africa. However, maize is the highest in terms of production, and it partly guarantees food security. The concern arises since climate change is projected to lower maize yields, negatively affecting some parts of the region which already suffer high levels of famine.
In this study, two varieties of maize, early and late, based on their sowing date, were modelled in three sites in Kenya using the crop model AquaCrop, developed by FAO. In a future climate change scenario, they were modelled under the RCP8.5. In parallel, important temperature-dependent maize development thresholds was specifically analyzed. The results indicated lower early maize biomass and yields in a future climate change scenario. Late maize biomass and yields resulted relatively high. Therefore, the late variety appeared to be the most suitable adaptation strategy in the three sites in Kenya. In addition, the specific feature of the employed AquaCrop version to simulate only year-by-year was also discussed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8990331
- author
- Signorelli, Alessia LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- NGEM01 20191
- year
- 2019
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- physical geography, sub-saharan africa, agriculture, maize, climate change
- publication/series
- Student thesis series INES
- report number
- 488
- language
- English
- id
- 8990331
- date added to LUP
- 2019-07-08 13:20:30
- date last changed
- 2019-07-08 13:20:30
@misc{8990331,
abstract = {{Climate change is progressively advancing, and is affecting the entire globe, with some areas more vulnerable than others. Among them, the sub-Saharan Africa, with a very low adaptive capacity, mainly relies on one economic sector: agriculture. Due to its high climate-dependency, agriculture is at elevated risk.
Among the different staple crops produced in the sub-Saharan Africa, maize is the most cultivated, and partly guarantees food security. However, climate change is projected to lower maize yields, negatively affecting some parts of the region which already suffers high levels of famine.
In this study, two maize varieties based on their sowing date, early and late, are modelled in three diverse sites in Kenya under the RCP8.5 scenario using climate data retrieved from CORDEX for temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, from 1951 to 2100. Early and late maize yields and biomass was simulated using the crop model AquaCrop, developed by FAO. In parallel, important temperature-dependent maize development thresholds was specifically analyzed. The results indicated lower early maize biomass and yields in a future climate change scenario. This outcome suggested the late sowing maize variety as the most suitable adaptation option for the three sites in Kenya. Furthermore, the limitation of AquaCrop of only simulating year-by-year was discussed. It is therefore suggested to run model simulations on a longer time span in order to better project future climate change impacts. This study can contribute to the work of assessing climate change derived social implications in the sub-Saharan Africa, such as future food security and migrations.}},
author = {{Signorelli, Alessia}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{Student thesis series INES}},
title = {{Climate change effects on the sub-Saharan agriculture- a case study in Kenya on maize growth and adaptation options}},
year = {{2019}},
}