Navigating Uncertainies: Strategies for Rubust Hydrogen QRA
(2024) VRSM01 20241Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.)
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
- Abstract
- Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and
reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA.
This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to... (More) - Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and
reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA.
This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to identify the necessary detail level for QRA studies. Results indicate increased strength of knowledge, though some parameters may not need detailed distributions. Applying this approach broadly could improve QRA robustness and accuracy, especially when scaling facilities from pilot to commercial plants. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9170880
- author
- Gustafsson, Simon LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- VRSM01 20241
- year
- 2024
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Uncertainty Management, Hydrogen, Quantitative Risk Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation and Strength of Knowledge
- language
- English
- id
- 9170880
- date added to LUP
- 2024-07-30 12:00:05
- date last changed
- 2024-07-30 12:00:05
@misc{9170880, abstract = {{Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA. This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to identify the necessary detail level for QRA studies. Results indicate increased strength of knowledge, though some parameters may not need detailed distributions. Applying this approach broadly could improve QRA robustness and accuracy, especially when scaling facilities from pilot to commercial plants.}}, author = {{Gustafsson, Simon}}, language = {{eng}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{Navigating Uncertainies: Strategies for Rubust Hydrogen QRA}}, year = {{2024}}, }