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Troubled Waters: Assessing the Congruence between Offensive Realism and China’s Violations of International Law in the South China Sea

Lonér, Teo LU (2025) FKVK02 20251
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This thesis examines how offensive realism can explain China’s violations of international law in the South China Sea (SCS). Drawing on John Mearsheimer’s five bedrock assumptions: anarchy, offensive capability, uncertainty of intentions, survival as a primary goal, and rationality, the study uses the congruence method within a qualitative case study framework. It assesses whether China’s violations in the SCS, including its nine-dash line claims, artificial island construction, EEZ harassment, interference with freedom of navigation, and rejection of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) award, align with offensive realism’s five bedrock assumptions.

The findings demonstrate a high level of congruence across three domains:... (More)
This thesis examines how offensive realism can explain China’s violations of international law in the South China Sea (SCS). Drawing on John Mearsheimer’s five bedrock assumptions: anarchy, offensive capability, uncertainty of intentions, survival as a primary goal, and rationality, the study uses the congruence method within a qualitative case study framework. It assesses whether China’s violations in the SCS, including its nine-dash line claims, artificial island construction, EEZ harassment, interference with freedom of navigation, and rejection of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) award, align with offensive realism’s five bedrock assumptions.

The findings demonstrate a high level of congruence across three domains: territorial assertion and control, operational coercion, and legal rejectionism. While not all assumptions are evident in every violation, taken together, China’s behavior reflects the full range of offensive realism’s theoretical assumptions. The analysis suggests that offensive realism provides a strong and plausible explanation for China’s behavior in the SCS. The thesis contributes to our understanding of how great powers behave and highlights challenges to the effectiveness of international law, especially the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Lonér, Teo LU
supervisor
organization
course
FKVK02 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
China, South China Sea, Offensive Realism, UNCLOS
language
English
id
9191187
date added to LUP
2025-08-08 11:23:22
date last changed
2025-08-08 11:23:22
@misc{9191187,
  abstract     = {{This thesis examines how offensive realism can explain China’s violations of international law in the South China Sea (SCS). Drawing on John Mearsheimer’s five bedrock assumptions: anarchy, offensive capability, uncertainty of intentions, survival as a primary goal, and rationality, the study uses the congruence method within a qualitative case study framework. It assesses whether China’s violations in the SCS, including its nine-dash line claims, artificial island construction, EEZ harassment, interference with freedom of navigation, and rejection of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) award, align with offensive realism’s five bedrock assumptions. 

The findings demonstrate a high level of congruence across three domains: territorial assertion and control, operational coercion, and legal rejectionism. While not all assumptions are evident in every violation, taken together, China’s behavior reflects the full range of offensive realism’s theoretical assumptions. The analysis suggests that offensive realism provides a strong and plausible explanation for China’s behavior in the SCS. The thesis contributes to our understanding of how great powers behave and highlights challenges to the effectiveness of international law, especially the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).}},
  author       = {{Lonér, Teo}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Troubled Waters: Assessing the Congruence between Offensive Realism and China’s Violations of International Law in the South China Sea}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}