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Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses : The Age of Butterflies Revisited

Chazot, Nicolas LU ; Wahlberg, Niklas LU ; Freitas, André Victor Lucci ; Mitter, Charles ; Labandeira, Conrad ; Sohn, Jae Cheon ; Sahoo, Ranjit Kumar ; Seraphim, Noemy ; De Jong, Rienk and Heikkilä, Maria (2019) In Systematic Biology 68(5). p.797-813
Abstract

The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an... (More)

The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Butterflies, Early Cretaceous, fossils, host plants, marginal prior, Papilionoidea, time-calibration
in
Systematic Biology
volume
68
issue
5
pages
17 pages
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85071456424
  • pmid:30690622
ISSN
1063-5157
DOI
10.1093/sysbio/syz002
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
01850e2e-ae9d-4ec9-9c22-49d4e84f9e2b
date added to LUP
2019-09-17 14:49:19
date last changed
2019-12-03 02:18:54
@article{01850e2e-ae9d-4ec9-9c22-49d4e84f9e2b,
  abstract     = {<p>The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.</p>},
  author       = {Chazot, Nicolas and Wahlberg, Niklas and Freitas, André Victor Lucci and Mitter, Charles and Labandeira, Conrad and Sohn, Jae Cheon and Sahoo, Ranjit Kumar and Seraphim, Noemy and De Jong, Rienk and Heikkilä, Maria},
  issn         = {1063-5157},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {5},
  pages        = {797--813},
  publisher    = {Oxford University Press},
  series       = {Systematic Biology},
  title        = {Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses : The Age of Butterflies Revisited},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syz002},
  doi          = {10.1093/sysbio/syz002},
  volume       = {68},
  year         = {2019},
}