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Betting on the underdog : The influence of social networks on vote choice

Fredén, Annika LU ; Rheault, Ludovic and Indridason, Indridi H. (2022) In Political Science Research and Methods 10(1). p.198-205
Abstract

People are commonly expected not to waste their vote on parties with small probabilities of being elected. Yet, many end up voting for underdogs. We argue that voters gauge the popular support for their preferred party from their social networks. When social networks function as echo chambers, a feature observed in real-life networks, voters overestimate underdogs' chances of winning. We conduct voting experiments in which some treatment groups receive signals from a simulated network. We compare the effect of networks with a high degree of homogeneity against random networks. We find that homophilic networks increase the level of support for underdogs, which provides evidence to back up anecdotal claims that echo chambers foster the... (More)

People are commonly expected not to waste their vote on parties with small probabilities of being elected. Yet, many end up voting for underdogs. We argue that voters gauge the popular support for their preferred party from their social networks. When social networks function as echo chambers, a feature observed in real-life networks, voters overestimate underdogs' chances of winning. We conduct voting experiments in which some treatment groups receive signals from a simulated network. We compare the effect of networks with a high degree of homogeneity against random networks. We find that homophilic networks increase the level of support for underdogs, which provides evidence to back up anecdotal claims that echo chambers foster the development of fringe parties.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
elections and campaigns, experimental research, social networks, voting behavior
in
Political Science Research and Methods
volume
10
issue
1
pages
198 - 205
publisher
Cambridge University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85086790431
ISSN
2049-8470
DOI
10.1017/psrm.2020.21
language
English
LU publication?
no
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The European Political Science Association.
id
05808467-a5e5-467b-bc65-847c77bf16f0
date added to LUP
2021-12-15 13:41:37
date last changed
2022-06-29 19:21:35
@article{05808467-a5e5-467b-bc65-847c77bf16f0,
  abstract     = {{<p>People are commonly expected not to waste their vote on parties with small probabilities of being elected. Yet, many end up voting for underdogs. We argue that voters gauge the popular support for their preferred party from their social networks. When social networks function as echo chambers, a feature observed in real-life networks, voters overestimate underdogs' chances of winning. We conduct voting experiments in which some treatment groups receive signals from a simulated network. We compare the effect of networks with a high degree of homogeneity against random networks. We find that homophilic networks increase the level of support for underdogs, which provides evidence to back up anecdotal claims that echo chambers foster the development of fringe parties.</p>}},
  author       = {{Fredén, Annika and Rheault, Ludovic and Indridason, Indridi H.}},
  issn         = {{2049-8470}},
  keywords     = {{elections and campaigns; experimental research; social networks; voting behavior}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{198--205}},
  publisher    = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  series       = {{Political Science Research and Methods}},
  title        = {{Betting on the underdog : The influence of social networks on vote choice}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2020.21}},
  doi          = {{10.1017/psrm.2020.21}},
  volume       = {{10}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}