Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

EVIDENCE OF PRECURSORY PATTERNS IN AGGREGATED TIME SERIES

Adamaki, Angeliki LU orcid and Roberts, Roland G. (2016) 50.
Abstract
We investigate temporal changes in seismic activity observed in the West Corinth Gulfand North-West Peloponnese during 2008 to 2010. Two major earthquake sequencestook place in the area at that time (in 2008 and 2010). Our aim is to analyse Greekseismicity to attempt to confirm the existence or non-existence of seismic precursorsprior to the strongest earthquakes. Perhaps because the area is geologically andtectonically complex, we found that it was not possible to fit the data well using aconsistent Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Nor could weunambiguously identify foreshocks to individual mainshocks. Therefore we soughtpatterns in aggregated foreshock catalogues. We set a magnitude threshold (M3.5)above which all the... (More)
We investigate temporal changes in seismic activity observed in the West Corinth Gulfand North-West Peloponnese during 2008 to 2010. Two major earthquake sequencestook place in the area at that time (in 2008 and 2010). Our aim is to analyse Greekseismicity to attempt to confirm the existence or non-existence of seismic precursorsprior to the strongest earthquakes. Perhaps because the area is geologically andtectonically complex, we found that it was not possible to fit the data well using aconsistent Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Nor could weunambiguously identify foreshocks to individual mainshocks. Therefore we soughtpatterns in aggregated foreshock catalogues. We set a magnitude threshold (M3.5)above which all the earthquakes detected in the study area are considered as“mainshocks”, and we combined all data preceding these into a single foreshockcatalogue. This reveals an increase in seismicity rate not robustly observable forindividual cases. The observed effect is significantly greater than that consistent withstochastic models, including ETAS, thus indicating genuine foreshock activity withpotential useful precursory power, if sufficient data is available, i.e. if the magnitudeof completeness is sufficiently low. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
and
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece : 14th International Conference of the G.S.G. - 14th International Conference of the G.S.G.
volume
50
DOI
10.12681/bgsg.11834
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
06f96b39-fadf-420d-af2f-b7a4cfdd6abd
date added to LUP
2023-10-04 11:47:30
date last changed
2023-10-05 16:06:22
@inproceedings{06f96b39-fadf-420d-af2f-b7a4cfdd6abd,
  abstract     = {{We investigate temporal changes in seismic activity observed in the West Corinth Gulfand North-West Peloponnese during 2008 to 2010. Two major earthquake sequencestook place in the area at that time (in 2008 and 2010). Our aim is to analyse Greekseismicity to attempt to confirm the existence or non-existence of seismic precursorsprior to the strongest earthquakes. Perhaps because the area is geologically andtectonically complex, we found that it was not possible to fit the data well using aconsistent Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Nor could weunambiguously identify foreshocks to individual mainshocks. Therefore we soughtpatterns in aggregated foreshock catalogues. We set a magnitude threshold (M3.5)above which all the earthquakes detected in the study area are considered as“mainshocks”, and we combined all data preceding these into a single foreshockcatalogue. This reveals an increase in seismicity rate not robustly observable forindividual cases. The observed effect is significantly greater than that consistent withstochastic models, including ETAS, thus indicating genuine foreshock activity withpotential useful precursory power, if sufficient data is available, i.e. if the magnitudeof completeness is sufficiently low.}},
  author       = {{Adamaki, Angeliki and Roberts, Roland G.}},
  booktitle    = {{Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece : 14th International Conference of the G.S.G.}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  title        = {{EVIDENCE OF PRECURSORY PATTERNS IN AGGREGATED TIME SERIES}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11834}},
  doi          = {{10.12681/bgsg.11834}},
  volume       = {{50}},
  year         = {{2016}},
}