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Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species even under conservation policy scenarios in Europe

Rigal, Stanislas ; Lenormand, Maxime ; Tardieu, Léa ; Alonso, Hany ; Auniņš, Ainārs ; Bakx, Tristan R.M. LU orcid ; Boom, Michiel P. ; Brambilla, Mattia ; Brotons, Lluís and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz , et al. (2026) In Nature Ecology and Evolution
Abstract

In response to increasing human pressures on biodiversity, conservation targets have been set to reduce these pressures and halt biodiversity decline. However, consequences of these objectives on common species are rarely studied. We analyse the effect of a range of drivers related to climate, land use and land-use intensity on 265 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 27 European countries. We use land use and land-use intensity scenarios produced previously using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Nature Futures Framework and climate change scenarios to project biodiversity drivers in Europe up to 2050. We... (More)

In response to increasing human pressures on biodiversity, conservation targets have been set to reduce these pressures and halt biodiversity decline. However, consequences of these objectives on common species are rarely studied. We analyse the effect of a range of drivers related to climate, land use and land-use intensity on 265 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 27 European countries. We use land use and land-use intensity scenarios produced previously using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Nature Futures Framework and climate change scenarios to project biodiversity drivers in Europe up to 2050. We translate these driver changes into abundance variations for common bird and butterfly species and for multi-species indicators used to monitor common biodiversity status in Europe. The projected trends relatively improve, while still declining for birds, notably farmland species, under the scenarios meeting conservation objectives, with few effects on butterflies. No scenario shows a stop or a reversal in the average decline in abundance of bird and butterfly species. Our results therefore question the common biodiversity future under current conservation policies and highlight the need for other anticipatory frameworks not implicitly based on a growing need for natural resources.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Ecology and Evolution
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:42538418
  • scopus:105046374781
ISSN
2397-334X
DOI
10.1038/s41559-026-03139-6
project
Svensk Dagfjärilsövervakning
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2026.
id
09e1c063-f8cd-4d7f-bcac-3f94d0603138
date added to LUP
2026-08-13 08:38:03
date last changed
2026-09-10 10:26:43
@article{09e1c063-f8cd-4d7f-bcac-3f94d0603138,
  abstract     = {{<p>In response to increasing human pressures on biodiversity, conservation targets have been set to reduce these pressures and halt biodiversity decline. However, consequences of these objectives on common species are rarely studied. We analyse the effect of a range of drivers related to climate, land use and land-use intensity on 265 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 27 European countries. We use land use and land-use intensity scenarios produced previously using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Nature Futures Framework and climate change scenarios to project biodiversity drivers in Europe up to 2050. We translate these driver changes into abundance variations for common bird and butterfly species and for multi-species indicators used to monitor common biodiversity status in Europe. The projected trends relatively improve, while still declining for birds, notably farmland species, under the scenarios meeting conservation objectives, with few effects on butterflies. No scenario shows a stop or a reversal in the average decline in abundance of bird and butterfly species. Our results therefore question the common biodiversity future under current conservation policies and highlight the need for other anticipatory frameworks not implicitly based on a growing need for natural resources.</p>}},
  author       = {{Rigal, Stanislas and Lenormand, Maxime and Tardieu, Léa and Alonso, Hany and Auniņš, Ainārs and Bakx, Tristan R.M. and Boom, Michiel P. and Brambilla, Mattia and Brotons, Lluís and Chodkiewicz, Tomasz and Fontaine, Benoît and Fric, Zdenek Faltynek and Gamero, Anna and Herrando, Sergi and Kålås, John Atle and Kamp, Johannes and Kurlavičius, Petras and Kuussaari, Mikko and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Maes, Dirk and Mestdagh, Xavier and Musche, Martin and Øien, Ingar Jostein and Pettersson, Lars B. and Reif, Jiří and Rüdisser, Johannes and Šašić, Martina and Schmucki, Reto and Settele, Josef and Stefanescu, Constanti and Stokke, Bård Gunnar and Strebel, Nicolas and Titeux, Nicolas and Trautmann, Sven and Van Swaay, Chris and Luque, Sandra}},
  issn         = {{2397-334X}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{07}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Ecology and Evolution}},
  title        = {{Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species even under conservation policy scenarios in Europe}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03139-6}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41559-026-03139-6}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}