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Decision-value Analysis of Risk Mitigation Strategies for Bridges Subjected to Climate Change

Castro-Giraldo, Sergio LU orcid ; Friis, Tobias ; Sixie Cao, Alex and Thöns, Sebastian LU (2026) p.36-44
Abstract
This paper presents a decision-analytic approach for evaluating risk reduction actions for structural systems under climate change. A decision-theoretic formulation is developed to quantify the value of actions, extended to address climate change scenario uncertainties. Scenario occurrence probabilities are derived from probabilistic effective radiative forcing exceedances to link climate model projections with decision analysis. The proposed methodology integrates system reliability analysis to assess bridge performance under extreme flooding. The approach is demonstrated through an application to a bridge, where multiple risk reduction strategies are evaluated for their effectiveness across climate scenarios, to identify the optimal... (More)
This paper presents a decision-analytic approach for evaluating risk reduction actions for structural systems under climate change. A decision-theoretic formulation is developed to quantify the value of actions, extended to address climate change scenario uncertainties. Scenario occurrence probabilities are derived from probabilistic effective radiative forcing exceedances to link climate model projections with decision analysis. The proposed methodology integrates system reliability analysis to assess bridge performance under extreme flooding. The approach is demonstrated through an application to a bridge, where multiple risk reduction strategies are evaluated for their effectiveness across climate scenarios, to identify the optimal action per scenario and overall. Results show that the optimal action may shift depending on future climate conditions, highlighting the importance of incorporating scenario-dependent uncertainty in infrastructure decision-making. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
IABSE Symposium 2026 : Bridging Advanced Technologies – Structural Innovation - Bridging Advanced Technologies – Structural Innovation
pages
36 - 44
publisher
International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering
external identifiers
  • scopus:105040815118
ISBN
978-3-85748-212-0
DOI
10.2749/copenhagen.2026.0036
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0a4c3520-2f57-4392-b108-34b75ab1c083
date added to LUP
2026-06-05 14:00:06
date last changed
2026-06-18 04:01:00
@inproceedings{0a4c3520-2f57-4392-b108-34b75ab1c083,
  abstract     = {{This paper presents a decision-analytic approach for evaluating risk reduction actions for structural systems under climate change. A decision-theoretic formulation is developed to quantify the value of actions, extended to address climate change scenario uncertainties. Scenario occurrence probabilities are derived from probabilistic effective radiative forcing exceedances to link climate model projections with decision analysis. The proposed methodology integrates system reliability analysis to assess bridge performance under extreme flooding. The approach is demonstrated through an application to a bridge, where multiple risk reduction strategies are evaluated for their effectiveness across climate scenarios, to identify the optimal action per scenario and overall. Results show that the optimal action may shift depending on future climate conditions, highlighting the importance of incorporating scenario-dependent uncertainty in infrastructure decision-making.}},
  author       = {{Castro-Giraldo, Sergio and Friis, Tobias and Sixie Cao, Alex and Thöns, Sebastian}},
  booktitle    = {{IABSE Symposium 2026 : Bridging Advanced Technologies – Structural Innovation}},
  isbn         = {{978-3-85748-212-0}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{36--44}},
  publisher    = {{International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering}},
  title        = {{Decision-value Analysis of Risk Mitigation Strategies for Bridges Subjected to Climate Change}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/copenhagen.2026.0036}},
  doi          = {{10.2749/copenhagen.2026.0036}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}