Insurance Voting in the Centre: An Experimental Approach
Fredén, Annika LU
; Bruinsma, Bastiaan
; Theorin, Nora
and Oscarsson, Henrik
(2024)
In International Journal of Public Opinion Research
36(3).
- Abstract
- Recent research suggests that to help their preferred coalition win an election, voters are willing to vote for a political party other than their preferred choice. In this field, voting for smaller parties under proportional representation is an under-studied feature. A crucial factor to estimate the chances for smaller parties is polls. In this study, we analyze the influence of opinion polls on switching vote choice to a smaller party when the party polls are at different levels. Building on an original survey experiment, we elaborate the potential differences in impact on insurance voting for a small party with looser or stronger association with a government alternative. The focus is the 2022 Swedish general election and the three... (More)
- Recent research suggests that to help their preferred coalition win an election, voters are willing to vote for a political party other than their preferred choice. In this field, voting for smaller parties under proportional representation is an under-studied feature. A crucial factor to estimate the chances for smaller parties is polls. In this study, we analyze the influence of opinion polls on switching vote choice to a smaller party when the party polls are at different levels. Building on an original survey experiment, we elaborate the potential differences in impact on insurance voting for a small party with looser or stronger association with a government alternative. The focus is the 2022 Swedish general election and the three smallest parties in parliament: the Green Party (center-left), the Christian Democrats (right), and the Liberals (center-right). The experiment had nine different conditions where each of these parties was placed at different levels of opinion: below, at, and above the parliamentary threshold, while holding all other factors constant. We find that poll-induced insurance voting is most prevalent for the party with the strongest preference for a government alternative (the Christian Democrats) and least prevalent for the party with a more issue-focused stance (the Greens). (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/0b2cffd3-4f30-40da-9979-c5102036a3a9
- author
- Fredén, Annika
LU
; Bruinsma, Bastiaan
; Theorin, Nora
and Oscarsson, Henrik
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024-08-09
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- opinionsmätningar, spärr, koalitioner, röstning
- in
- International Journal of Public Opinion Research
- volume
- 36
- issue
- 3
- article number
- edae041
- publisher
- Oxford University Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85201061544
- ISSN
- 1471-6909
- DOI
- 10.1093/ijpor/edae041
- project
- Bias and methods of AI technology studying political behavior
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 0b2cffd3-4f30-40da-9979-c5102036a3a9
- date added to LUP
- 2024-08-15 10:54:31
- date last changed
- 2025-05-04 20:06:25
@article{0b2cffd3-4f30-40da-9979-c5102036a3a9,
abstract = {{Recent research suggests that to help their preferred coalition win an election, voters are willing to vote for a political party other than their preferred choice. In this field, voting for smaller parties under proportional representation is an under-studied feature. A crucial factor to estimate the chances for smaller parties is polls. In this study, we analyze the influence of opinion polls on switching vote choice to a smaller party when the party polls are at different levels. Building on an original survey experiment, we elaborate the potential differences in impact on insurance voting for a small party with looser or stronger association with a government alternative. The focus is the 2022 Swedish general election and the three smallest parties in parliament: the Green Party (center-left), the Christian Democrats (right), and the Liberals (center-right). The experiment had nine different conditions where each of these parties was placed at different levels of opinion: below, at, and above the parliamentary threshold, while holding all other factors constant. We find that poll-induced insurance voting is most prevalent for the party with the strongest preference for a government alternative (the Christian Democrats) and least prevalent for the party with a more issue-focused stance (the Greens).}},
author = {{Fredén, Annika and Bruinsma, Bastiaan and Theorin, Nora and Oscarsson, Henrik}},
issn = {{1471-6909}},
keywords = {{opinionsmätningar, spärr, koalitioner, röstning}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{08}},
number = {{3}},
publisher = {{Oxford University Press}},
series = {{International Journal of Public Opinion Research}},
title = {{Insurance Voting in the Centre: An Experimental Approach}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edae041}},
doi = {{10.1093/ijpor/edae041}},
volume = {{36}},
year = {{2024}},
}