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Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

Auer, Cornelia ; Reyer, Christopher P.O. ; Adamczak, Weronika ; Aylett, Chris ; Benzie, Magnus ; Berndt, Jan Philipp ; Bresch, David N. ; Bosello, Francesco ; Bressan, Giacomo and Carter, Timothy R. , et al. (2025) In Nature Climate Change 15(11). p.1226-1233
Abstract

In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts... (More)

In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Climate Change
volume
15
issue
11
pages
8 pages
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:105018847119
ISSN
1758-678X
DOI
10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2
language
English
LU publication?
no
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.
id
0eee75fb-b999-48ff-aa8f-eeecc8feb84f
date added to LUP
2025-12-17 09:24:50
date last changed
2025-12-17 09:26:03
@article{0eee75fb-b999-48ff-aa8f-eeecc8feb84f,
  abstract     = {{<p>In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.</p>}},
  author       = {{Auer, Cornelia and Reyer, Christopher P.O. and Adamczak, Weronika and Aylett, Chris and Benzie, Magnus and Berndt, Jan Philipp and Bresch, David N. and Bosello, Francesco and Bressan, Giacomo and Carter, Timothy R. and Croft, Simon and Delpiazzo, Elisa and Desmidt, Sophie and Detges, Adrien and Duranovic, Anja and Fronzek, Stefan and Harris, Katy and Hildén, Mikael and Jarzabek, Lukasz and Key, Ramon and King, Richard and Kivimaa, Paula and Klein, Richard J.T. and Knaepen, Hanne and Lahn, Glada and Magnuszewski, Piotr and Mikaelsson, Mikael and Monasterolo, Irene and Mosoni, Claire and Otto, Ilona M. and Parrado, Ramiro and Pitzen, Samuli and Pohl, Benjamin and Puig, Oriol and Saes-Heibel, Hetty and Stokeld, Emilie and Talebian, Sara and Tondel, Fabien and Townend, Ruth and West, Chris and Woertz, Eckart and Wunderling, Nico}},
  issn         = {{1758-678X}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{1226--1233}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Climate Change}},
  title        = {{Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}