Electoral infidelity : Why party members cast defecting votes
(2018) In European Journal of Political Research 57(2). p.539-560- Abstract
- Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual-level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi-country European survey data and tested on two sets of party-level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection.... (More)
- Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual-level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi-country European survey data and tested on two sets of party-level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection. Additionally, internal ideological disagreement is associated with higher probabilities of defection, whereas the effects of pull factors in the form of contentious policies are rather limited. These findings emphasise the importance of testing scientific assumptions and the potential significance of party leadership contests. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/0f42698d-1ca1-4a3b-97b7-6981d20ed903
- author
- Polk, Jonathan LU and Kölln, Ann-Kristin
- publishing date
- 2018
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- party members, electoral behaviour, Europe
- in
- European Journal of Political Research
- volume
- 57
- issue
- 2
- pages
- 539 - 560
- publisher
- Wiley
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85028827449
- ISSN
- 0304-4130
- DOI
- 10.1111/1475-6765.12238
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- 0f42698d-1ca1-4a3b-97b7-6981d20ed903
- date added to LUP
- 2021-09-13 11:13:19
- date last changed
- 2023-03-16 07:52:57
@article{0f42698d-1ca1-4a3b-97b7-6981d20ed903, abstract = {{Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual-level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi-country European survey data and tested on two sets of party-level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection. Additionally, internal ideological disagreement is associated with higher probabilities of defection, whereas the effects of pull factors in the form of contentious policies are rather limited. These findings emphasise the importance of testing scientific assumptions and the potential significance of party leadership contests.}}, author = {{Polk, Jonathan and Kölln, Ann-Kristin}}, issn = {{0304-4130}}, keywords = {{party members; electoral behaviour; Europe}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{2}}, pages = {{539--560}}, publisher = {{Wiley}}, series = {{European Journal of Political Research}}, title = {{Electoral infidelity : Why party members cast defecting votes}}, url = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/135347146/Polk_Kolln_EJPR_2018_Accepted.pdf}}, doi = {{10.1111/1475-6765.12238}}, volume = {{57}}, year = {{2018}}, }