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Electoral infidelity : Why party members cast defecting votes

Polk, Jonathan LU orcid and Kölln, Ann-Kristin (2018) In European Journal of Political Research 57(2). p.539-560
Abstract
Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual-level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi-country European survey data and tested on two sets of party-level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection.... (More)
Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual-level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi-country European survey data and tested on two sets of party-level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection. Additionally, internal ideological disagreement is associated with higher probabilities of defection, whereas the effects of pull factors in the form of contentious policies are rather limited. These findings emphasise the importance of testing scientific assumptions and the potential significance of party leadership contests. (Less)
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author
and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
party members, electoral behaviour, Europe
in
European Journal of Political Research
volume
57
issue
2
pages
539 - 560
publisher
Wiley
external identifiers
  • scopus:85028827449
ISSN
0304-4130
DOI
10.1111/1475-6765.12238
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
0f42698d-1ca1-4a3b-97b7-6981d20ed903
date added to LUP
2021-09-13 11:13:19
date last changed
2023-03-16 07:52:57
@article{0f42698d-1ca1-4a3b-97b7-6981d20ed903,
  abstract     = {{Party politics and electoral research generally assume that party members are loyal voters. This article first assesses the empirical basis for this assumption before providing individual-level explanations for defection. It combines prominent theories from party politics and electoral behaviour research and argues that internal disagreement and external pressure can each bring about disloyal voting. The hypotheses are motivated with multi-country European survey data and tested on two sets of party-level national surveys. The results show, first, that, on average, 8 per cent of European party members cast a defecting vote in the last election, and second, that dissatisfaction with the leadership is the strongest predictor of defection. Additionally, internal ideological disagreement is associated with higher probabilities of defection, whereas the effects of pull factors in the form of contentious policies are rather limited. These findings emphasise the importance of testing scientific assumptions and the potential significance of party leadership contests.}},
  author       = {{Polk, Jonathan and Kölln, Ann-Kristin}},
  issn         = {{0304-4130}},
  keywords     = {{party members; electoral behaviour; Europe}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{539--560}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley}},
  series       = {{European Journal of Political Research}},
  title        = {{Electoral infidelity : Why party members cast defecting votes}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/135347146/Polk_Kolln_EJPR_2018_Accepted.pdf}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/1475-6765.12238}},
  volume       = {{57}},
  year         = {{2018}},
}