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Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation

Scott, C. E.; Monks, S. A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Arnold, S. R.; Forster, P. M.; Rap, A.; Äijälä, M.; Artaxo, P.; Carslaw, K. S. and Chipperfield, M. P., et al. (2018) In Nature Communications 9(1).
Abstract

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m-2) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO2, surface albedo and SLCFs... (More)

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m-2) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO2, surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

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Nature Communications
volume
9
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1
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Nature Publishing Group
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  • scopus:85040453018
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2041-1723
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English
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1030b583-d03b-4305-b263-aa7e3191c4ed
date added to LUP
2018-01-22 08:35:54
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2018-05-29 09:32:34
@article{1030b583-d03b-4305-b263-aa7e3191c4ed,
  abstract     = {<p>The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m<sup>-2</sup>) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO<sub>2</sub>, surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.</p>},
  articleno    = {157},
  author       = {Scott, C. E. and Monks, S. A. and Spracklen, D. V. and Arnold, S. R. and Forster, P. M. and Rap, A. and Äijälä, M. and Artaxo, P. and Carslaw, K. S. and Chipperfield, M. P. and Ehn, M. and Gilardoni, S. and Heikkinen, L. and Kulmala, M. and Petäjä, T. and Reddington, C. L.S. and Rizzo, L. V. and Swietlicki, E. and Vignati, E. and Wilson, C.},
  issn         = {2041-1723},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {12},
  number       = {1},
  publisher    = {Nature Publishing Group},
  series       = {Nature Communications},
  title        = {Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/},
  volume       = {9},
  year         = {2018},
}