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Bayesian calibration of a model describing carbon, water and heat fluxes for a Swedish boreal forest stand

Svensson, Magnus; Jansson, Per-Erik; Gustafsson, David; Berggren Kleja, Dan; Langvall, Ola and Lindroth, Anders LU (2008) In Ecological Modelling 213(3-4). p.331-344
Abstract
This study quantified major fluxes of carbon (C), heat and water, including uncertainty estimates, in a boreal forest in northern Sweden, using a process-based model (Coup-Model) and Bayesian calibration methodology. Coupled C, water and heat fluxes were described together with estimated uncertainties for all major components of the simulated C budget. Simulated mean gross primary production was 641 +/- 74 gC m(-2) yr(-1), total ecosystem respiration 570 +/- 55 gC m(-2)yr(-1) and net ecosystem productivity 71 +/- 37gCm(-2)yr(-1). Most high-resolution measurements were well described but some interesting exceptions arose between model and measurements, e.g. latent heat flux was overestimated and field layer (understory) root litter... (More)
This study quantified major fluxes of carbon (C), heat and water, including uncertainty estimates, in a boreal forest in northern Sweden, using a process-based model (Coup-Model) and Bayesian calibration methodology. Coupled C, water and heat fluxes were described together with estimated uncertainties for all major components of the simulated C budget. Simulated mean gross primary production was 641 +/- 74 gC m(-2) yr(-1), total ecosystem respiration 570 +/- 55 gC m(-2)yr(-1) and net ecosystem productivity 71 +/- 37gCm(-2)yr(-1). Most high-resolution measurements were well described but some interesting exceptions arose between model and measurements, e.g. latent heat flux was overestimated and field layer (understory) root litter production underestimated. Bayesian calibration reduced the assumed prior parameter ranges in 30 of 33 parameters, thus reducing the uncertainty in the estimates. There was a high degree of couplings between different sub-models and processes in the model, highlighting the importance of considering parameters not as singularities but in clusters. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
process-based model, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, carbon budget, CoupModel, uncertainty estimate
in
Ecological Modelling
volume
213
issue
3-4
pages
331 - 344
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000255624900006
  • scopus:41149133225
ISSN
0304-3800
DOI
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.001
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c0988703-b39e-4793-8a8b-38afcd236d2e (old id 1204790)
date added to LUP
2008-09-18 11:07:34
date last changed
2017-02-19 03:47:38
@article{c0988703-b39e-4793-8a8b-38afcd236d2e,
  abstract     = {This study quantified major fluxes of carbon (C), heat and water, including uncertainty estimates, in a boreal forest in northern Sweden, using a process-based model (Coup-Model) and Bayesian calibration methodology. Coupled C, water and heat fluxes were described together with estimated uncertainties for all major components of the simulated C budget. Simulated mean gross primary production was 641 +/- 74 gC m(-2) yr(-1), total ecosystem respiration 570 +/- 55 gC m(-2)yr(-1) and net ecosystem productivity 71 +/- 37gCm(-2)yr(-1). Most high-resolution measurements were well described but some interesting exceptions arose between model and measurements, e.g. latent heat flux was overestimated and field layer (understory) root litter production underestimated. Bayesian calibration reduced the assumed prior parameter ranges in 30 of 33 parameters, thus reducing the uncertainty in the estimates. There was a high degree of couplings between different sub-models and processes in the model, highlighting the importance of considering parameters not as singularities but in clusters.},
  author       = {Svensson, Magnus and Jansson, Per-Erik and Gustafsson, David and Berggren Kleja, Dan and Langvall, Ola and Lindroth, Anders},
  issn         = {0304-3800},
  keyword      = {process-based model,Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation,carbon budget,CoupModel,uncertainty estimate},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3-4},
  pages        = {331--344},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Ecological Modelling},
  title        = {Bayesian calibration of a model describing carbon, water and heat fluxes for a Swedish boreal forest stand},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.001},
  volume       = {213},
  year         = {2008},
}