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Survival After 100 Years of Age: A Multivariate Model of Exceptional Survival in Swedish Centenarians

Hagberg, Bo and Samuelsson, Gillis LU (2008) In Journals of Gerontology. Series A: Biological Sciences & Medical Sciences 63(11). p.1219-1226
Abstract
Background. Most survival studies of the elderly population have set their baselines for first examinations between 60 and 80 years. The rapidly increasing numbers of exceptionally old persons call for knowledge about determinants of exceptional survival. Methods. The Swedish Centenarian Study followed 100 centenarians from the age of 100 to death of the entire cohort, by age I I I years. A biomedical, psychological, and social multivariate survival analysis was performed based on factors identified as important in earlier studies of older adults. Latent Variable Partial Least Square Estimation (LVPLS) Soft Modeling was used to test the hypothesized predictions of survival in centenarians. Results. Fewer predictors for survival were found... (More)
Background. Most survival studies of the elderly population have set their baselines for first examinations between 60 and 80 years. The rapidly increasing numbers of exceptionally old persons call for knowledge about determinants of exceptional survival. Methods. The Swedish Centenarian Study followed 100 centenarians from the age of 100 to death of the entire cohort, by age I I I years. A biomedical, psychological, and social multivariate survival analysis was performed based on factors identified as important in earlier studies of older adults. Latent Variable Partial Least Square Estimation (LVPLS) Soft Modeling was used to test the hypothesized predictions of survival in centenarians. Results. Fewer predictors for survival were found in centenarians than were observed in studies of younger elderly persons. Survival after age 100 was dependent mainly on better baseline physical reserve, as measured by body mass index and body weight, and better baseline physical and cognitive function, as measured by activities of daily living and verbal ability/spatial orientation, respectively. Conclusions. Individual characteristics such as physiological reserve, present health and functional status, as well as chance appear important for centenarian survival. Hereditary factors, social relationships, marital status, and personality did not contribute to survival prediction in this exceptional age group. From a theoretical point of view, our data suggest that, in very old age, stochastic determinants may dominate over programmed factors (e.g., family longevity) in determining survival. More research is needed to assess survival factors at exceptional ages. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Centenarian, Prediction, Risk factor, Survival, Longevity
in
Journals of Gerontology. Series A: Biological Sciences & Medical Sciences
volume
63
issue
11
pages
1219 - 1226
publisher
Gerontologial Society of America
external identifiers
  • wos:000261395600011
  • scopus:57149098641
ISSN
1758-535X
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6cfeee1e-ad5b-4dcb-9203-5bb4c078aeaf (old id 1305503)
alternative location
http://biomed.gerontologyjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/63/11/1219
date added to LUP
2009-03-23 12:42:31
date last changed
2017-09-17 06:38:09
@article{6cfeee1e-ad5b-4dcb-9203-5bb4c078aeaf,
  abstract     = {Background. Most survival studies of the elderly population have set their baselines for first examinations between 60 and 80 years. The rapidly increasing numbers of exceptionally old persons call for knowledge about determinants of exceptional survival. Methods. The Swedish Centenarian Study followed 100 centenarians from the age of 100 to death of the entire cohort, by age I I I years. A biomedical, psychological, and social multivariate survival analysis was performed based on factors identified as important in earlier studies of older adults. Latent Variable Partial Least Square Estimation (LVPLS) Soft Modeling was used to test the hypothesized predictions of survival in centenarians. Results. Fewer predictors for survival were found in centenarians than were observed in studies of younger elderly persons. Survival after age 100 was dependent mainly on better baseline physical reserve, as measured by body mass index and body weight, and better baseline physical and cognitive function, as measured by activities of daily living and verbal ability/spatial orientation, respectively. Conclusions. Individual characteristics such as physiological reserve, present health and functional status, as well as chance appear important for centenarian survival. Hereditary factors, social relationships, marital status, and personality did not contribute to survival prediction in this exceptional age group. From a theoretical point of view, our data suggest that, in very old age, stochastic determinants may dominate over programmed factors (e.g., family longevity) in determining survival. More research is needed to assess survival factors at exceptional ages.},
  author       = {Hagberg, Bo and Samuelsson, Gillis},
  issn         = {1758-535X},
  keyword      = {Centenarian,Prediction,Risk factor,Survival,Longevity},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {1219--1226},
  publisher    = {Gerontologial Society of America},
  series       = {Journals of Gerontology. Series A: Biological Sciences & Medical Sciences},
  title        = {Survival After 100 Years of Age: A Multivariate Model of Exceptional Survival in Swedish Centenarians},
  volume       = {63},
  year         = {2008},
}