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Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus

Jönsson, Anna Maria LU ; Appelberg, Gustaf; Harding, Susanne and Bärring, Lars LU (2009) In Global Change Biology 15(2). p.486-499
Abstract
The spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is one of the major insect pests of mature Norway spruce forests. In this study, a model describing the temperature-dependent thresholds for swarming activity and temperature requirement for development from egg to adult was driven by transient regional climate scenario data for Sweden, covering the period of 1961-2100 for three future climate change scenarios (SRES A2, A1B and B2). During the 20th century, the weather supported the production of one bark beetle generation per year, except in the north-western mountainous parts of Sweden where the climate conditions were too harsh. A warmer climate may sustain a viable population also in the mountainous part; however, the distributional range of I.... (More)
The spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is one of the major insect pests of mature Norway spruce forests. In this study, a model describing the temperature-dependent thresholds for swarming activity and temperature requirement for development from egg to adult was driven by transient regional climate scenario data for Sweden, covering the period of 1961-2100 for three future climate change scenarios (SRES A2, A1B and B2). During the 20th century, the weather supported the production of one bark beetle generation per year, except in the north-western mountainous parts of Sweden where the climate conditions were too harsh. A warmer climate may sustain a viable population also in the mountainous part; however, the distributional range of I. typographus may be restricted by the migration speed of Norway spruce. Modelling suggests that an earlier timing of spring swarming and fulfilled development of the first generation will significantly increase the frequency of summer swarming. Model calculations suggest that the spruce bark beetle will be able to initiate a second generation in South Sweden during 50% of the years around the mid century. By the end of the century, when temperatures during the bark beetle activity period are projected to have increased by 2.4-3.8 degrees C, a second generation will be initiated in South Sweden in 63-81% of the years. The corresponding figures are 16-33% for Mid Sweden, and 1-6% for North Sweden. During the next decades, one to two generations per year are predicted in response to temperature, and the northern distribution limit for the second generation will vary. Our study addresses questions applicable to sustainable forest management, suggesting that adequate countermeasures require monitoring of regional differences in timing of swarming and development of I. typographus, and planning of control operations during summer periods with large populations of bark beetles. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
forest damage, temperature, Sweden, impact modelling
in
Global Change Biology
volume
15
issue
2
pages
486 - 499
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000262510500016
  • scopus:58549085790
ISSN
1354-1013
DOI
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01742.x
project
Climate Initiative
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f46d7fdd-707d-47d5-946e-8a4ec9745828 (old id 1312610)
date added to LUP
2009-03-13 13:10:08
date last changed
2017-12-10 03:48:30
@article{f46d7fdd-707d-47d5-946e-8a4ec9745828,
  abstract     = {The spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is one of the major insect pests of mature Norway spruce forests. In this study, a model describing the temperature-dependent thresholds for swarming activity and temperature requirement for development from egg to adult was driven by transient regional climate scenario data for Sweden, covering the period of 1961-2100 for three future climate change scenarios (SRES A2, A1B and B2). During the 20th century, the weather supported the production of one bark beetle generation per year, except in the north-western mountainous parts of Sweden where the climate conditions were too harsh. A warmer climate may sustain a viable population also in the mountainous part; however, the distributional range of I. typographus may be restricted by the migration speed of Norway spruce. Modelling suggests that an earlier timing of spring swarming and fulfilled development of the first generation will significantly increase the frequency of summer swarming. Model calculations suggest that the spruce bark beetle will be able to initiate a second generation in South Sweden during 50% of the years around the mid century. By the end of the century, when temperatures during the bark beetle activity period are projected to have increased by 2.4-3.8 degrees C, a second generation will be initiated in South Sweden in 63-81% of the years. The corresponding figures are 16-33% for Mid Sweden, and 1-6% for North Sweden. During the next decades, one to two generations per year are predicted in response to temperature, and the northern distribution limit for the second generation will vary. Our study addresses questions applicable to sustainable forest management, suggesting that adequate countermeasures require monitoring of regional differences in timing of swarming and development of I. typographus, and planning of control operations during summer periods with large populations of bark beetles.},
  author       = {Jönsson, Anna Maria and Appelberg, Gustaf and Harding, Susanne and Bärring, Lars},
  issn         = {1354-1013},
  keyword      = {forest damage,temperature,Sweden,impact modelling},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {486--499},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Global Change Biology},
  title        = {Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01742.x},
  volume       = {15},
  year         = {2009},
}