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The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology

Jonzén, Niclas LU ; Lundberg, Per LU ; Ranta, E and Kaitala, V (2002) In Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences 269(1488). p.221-225
Abstract
The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). In this paper we demonstrate that this may be an arduous, if not impossible, task. It is the lack of adequate ecological theory, rather than statistical sophistication, which leads to this problem. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecological processes. Ignoring the fact that this is a... (More)
The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). In this paper we demonstrate that this may be an arduous, if not impossible, task. It is the lack of adequate ecological theory, rather than statistical sophistication, which leads to this problem. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecological processes. Ignoring the fact that this is a real problem may mislead ecologists and result in erroneous conclusions about the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous factors in natural ecosystems. The lack of correct model identification may also have far-reaching consequences for population management and conservation. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
volume
269
issue
1488
pages
221 - 225
publisher
Royal Society
external identifiers
  • wos:000173869200002
  • pmid:11839190
  • scopus:53149100944
ISSN
1471-2954
DOI
10.1098/rspb.2001.1888
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dcb039c1-d330-40a7-b6c7-6c3123aec9ca (old id 131531)
date added to LUP
2007-07-03 12:35:16
date last changed
2017-08-20 04:29:09
@article{dcb039c1-d330-40a7-b6c7-6c3123aec9ca,
  abstract     = {The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). In this paper we demonstrate that this may be an arduous, if not impossible, task. It is the lack of adequate ecological theory, rather than statistical sophistication, which leads to this problem. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecological processes. Ignoring the fact that this is a real problem may mislead ecologists and result in erroneous conclusions about the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous factors in natural ecosystems. The lack of correct model identification may also have far-reaching consequences for population management and conservation.},
  author       = {Jonzén, Niclas and Lundberg, Per and Ranta, E and Kaitala, V},
  issn         = {1471-2954},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1488},
  pages        = {221--225},
  publisher    = {Royal Society},
  series       = {Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences},
  title        = {The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2001.1888},
  volume       = {269},
  year         = {2002},
}