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A coupled human-environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies

Helldén, Ulf LU (2008) In Global and Planetary Change 64(3-4). p.158-168
Abstract
This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification. The human-environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms. The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in... (More)
This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification. The human-environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms. The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in and out migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modeled as a function of climate and exploitation pressure affecting soil erosion and water availability. The model is applied for the Sahelian desertification syndrome using input data to illustrate and simulate a 150 years period (1900-2050) in Kordofan, Sudan. The model indicates that it is difficult to generate irreversible desertification. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Sahel, system dynamic modelling, desertification simulation, land degradation
in
Global and Planetary Change
volume
64
issue
3-4
pages
158 - 168
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000262428500007
  • scopus:57049117315
ISSN
1872-6364
DOI
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.004
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
8400e417-a720-44cd-ba50-5719e4ed212f (old id 1376081)
date added to LUP
2009-05-04 12:48:57
date last changed
2017-06-18 03:49:34
@article{8400e417-a720-44cd-ba50-5719e4ed212f,
  abstract     = {This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification. The human-environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms. The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in and out migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modeled as a function of climate and exploitation pressure affecting soil erosion and water availability. The model is applied for the Sahelian desertification syndrome using input data to illustrate and simulate a 150 years period (1900-2050) in Kordofan, Sudan. The model indicates that it is difficult to generate irreversible desertification. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Helldén, Ulf},
  issn         = {1872-6364},
  keyword      = {Sahel,system dynamic modelling,desertification simulation,land degradation},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3-4},
  pages        = {158--168},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Global and Planetary Change},
  title        = {A coupled human-environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.004},
  volume       = {64},
  year         = {2008},
}