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An ecosystem model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models

Hickler, Thomas LU ; Fronzek, Stefan; Araujo, Miguel B.; Schweiger, Oliver; Thuiller, Wilfried and Sykes, Martin LU (2009) In Global Ecology and Biogeography 18(3). p.304-313
Abstract
To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Europe. We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water... (More)
To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Europe. We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
species distribution modelling, biodiversity projections, Bioclimatic envelope models, climate change, CO2 fertilization effects, drought effects, hydrology, ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, vegetation response, water availability
in
Global Ecology and Biogeography
volume
18
issue
3
pages
304 - 313
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000264957300004
  • scopus:64649093849
ISSN
1466-8238
DOI
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00455.x
project
Climate Initiative
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
46826316-ed87-4f2b-8996-4cc3d83e2123 (old id 1400642)
date added to LUP
2009-06-12 10:58:44
date last changed
2017-03-26 03:40:04
@article{46826316-ed87-4f2b-8996-4cc3d83e2123,
  abstract     = {To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Europe. We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.},
  author       = {Hickler, Thomas and Fronzek, Stefan and Araujo, Miguel B. and Schweiger, Oliver and Thuiller, Wilfried and Sykes, Martin},
  issn         = {1466-8238},
  keyword      = {species distribution modelling,biodiversity projections,Bioclimatic envelope models,climate change,CO2 fertilization effects,drought effects,hydrology,ecosystem model,LPJ-GUESS,vegetation response,water availability},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {304--313},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  title        = {An ecosystem model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00455.x},
  volume       = {18},
  year         = {2009},
}