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Multi-indices analysis of southern Scandinavian storminess 1780-2005 and links to interdecadal variations in the NW Europe-North Sea region

Bärring, Lars LU and Fortuniak, Krzysztof (2009) In International Journal of Climatology 29(3). p.373-384
Abstract
Extra-tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are Currently under intense scrutiny because of the destruction recent windstorms have brought to Europe, and because they are a major meridional heat transport mechanism that may respond to differential latitudinal warming trends. Several studies using reanalysis data covering the second half of the 20th century Suggest increasing storm intensity in the northeastern Atlantic and European sector. Fewer analyses cover a longer time period but show different trends or point towards the dominance of interdecadal variability instead of ally clear trends. Hence, it is relevant to analyse cyclone variability over as long a period as possible. In this Study, we analyse interdecadal variability in... (More)
Extra-tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are Currently under intense scrutiny because of the destruction recent windstorms have brought to Europe, and because they are a major meridional heat transport mechanism that may respond to differential latitudinal warming trends. Several studies using reanalysis data covering the second half of the 20th century Suggest increasing storm intensity in the northeastern Atlantic and European sector. Fewer analyses cover a longer time period but show different trends or point towards the dominance of interdecadal variability instead of ally clear trends. Hence, it is relevant to analyse cyclone variability over as long a period as possible. In this Study, we analyse interdecadal variability in cyclone activity over northwestern Europe back to AD 1780 by combining information from eight storminess indices applied in all Eulerian framework. These indices, including four new approaches towards gauging cyclone activity, use the series of thrice-daily sea level pressure observations at Lund and Stockholm. We find pronounced interdecadal variability in cyclonic activity but no significant overall consistent long-term trend. The major interdecadal-scale variability common to all indices is in good agreement with geostrophic wind reconstructions for NE Atlantic and NW Europe, and with variations in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Our results show that the reanalysis studies cover a time period chiefly coinciding with a marked, but not exceptional in our 225-year perspective, positive variation in the regional cyclone activity that has more recently reversed. Because of the interdecadal variations, a near-centennial time perspective is needed when analysing variations in extra-tropical cyclone activity and the associated weather conditions over northwestern Europe. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
sea level pressure, climate variability, storm frequency, Eulerian statistics, cyclone activity, windstorms, multi-decadal variation
in
International Journal of Climatology
volume
29
issue
3
pages
373 - 384
publisher
John Wiley & Sons
external identifiers
  • wos:000264085900006
  • scopus:66049163578
ISSN
1097-0088
DOI
10.1002/joc.1842
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0e0c66be-7ed0-458b-be32-127294ed14b6 (old id 1404858)
date added to LUP
2009-06-10 15:47:41
date last changed
2017-10-22 03:33:14
@article{0e0c66be-7ed0-458b-be32-127294ed14b6,
  abstract     = {Extra-tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are Currently under intense scrutiny because of the destruction recent windstorms have brought to Europe, and because they are a major meridional heat transport mechanism that may respond to differential latitudinal warming trends. Several studies using reanalysis data covering the second half of the 20th century Suggest increasing storm intensity in the northeastern Atlantic and European sector. Fewer analyses cover a longer time period but show different trends or point towards the dominance of interdecadal variability instead of ally clear trends. Hence, it is relevant to analyse cyclone variability over as long a period as possible. In this Study, we analyse interdecadal variability in cyclone activity over northwestern Europe back to AD 1780 by combining information from eight storminess indices applied in all Eulerian framework. These indices, including four new approaches towards gauging cyclone activity, use the series of thrice-daily sea level pressure observations at Lund and Stockholm. We find pronounced interdecadal variability in cyclonic activity but no significant overall consistent long-term trend. The major interdecadal-scale variability common to all indices is in good agreement with geostrophic wind reconstructions for NE Atlantic and NW Europe, and with variations in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Our results show that the reanalysis studies cover a time period chiefly coinciding with a marked, but not exceptional in our 225-year perspective, positive variation in the regional cyclone activity that has more recently reversed. Because of the interdecadal variations, a near-centennial time perspective is needed when analysing variations in extra-tropical cyclone activity and the associated weather conditions over northwestern Europe. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society},
  author       = {Bärring, Lars and Fortuniak, Krzysztof},
  issn         = {1097-0088},
  keyword      = {sea level pressure,climate variability,storm frequency,Eulerian statistics,cyclone activity,windstorms,multi-decadal variation},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {373--384},
  publisher    = {John Wiley & Sons},
  series       = {International Journal of Climatology},
  title        = {Multi-indices analysis of southern Scandinavian storminess 1780-2005 and links to interdecadal variations in the NW Europe-North Sea region},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1842},
  volume       = {29},
  year         = {2009},
}