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Forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety impacts: driving assistance systems against road infrastructure measures

Lu, Meng LU and Wevers, K. (2007) 13th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress In IET Intelligent Transport Systems 1(2). p.117-123
Abstract
The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model ( GM( 1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios for implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels ( in terms of fatalities and hospitalisations) of five scenarios for the period 2003-2007 are analysed and modelled. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario ( for the years 2003 2010) are estimated. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the five... (More)
The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model ( GM( 1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios for implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels ( in terms of fatalities and hospitalisations) of five scenarios for the period 2003-2007 are analysed and modelled. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario ( for the years 2003 2010) are estimated. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the five scenarios for improving road traffic safety are compared. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
in
IET Intelligent Transport Systems
volume
1
issue
2
pages
117 - 123
publisher
Institution of Engineering and Technology
conference name
13th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress
external identifiers
  • wos:000255044800010
  • scopus:34249024869
ISSN
1751-9578
1751-956X
DOI
10.1049/iet-its:20060080
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a93dd385-598d-4f0a-8c43-5720eb2d0b6e (old id 1407316)
date added to LUP
2009-06-02 15:28:43
date last changed
2017-08-27 04:08:31
@inproceedings{a93dd385-598d-4f0a-8c43-5720eb2d0b6e,
  abstract     = {The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model ( GM( 1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios for implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels ( in terms of fatalities and hospitalisations) of five scenarios for the period 2003-2007 are analysed and modelled. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario ( for the years 2003 2010) are estimated. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the five scenarios for improving road traffic safety are compared.},
  author       = {Lu, Meng and Wevers, K.},
  booktitle    = {IET Intelligent Transport Systems},
  issn         = {1751-9578},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {117--123},
  publisher    = {Institution of Engineering and Technology},
  title        = {Forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety impacts: driving assistance systems against road infrastructure measures},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/iet-its:20060080},
  volume       = {1},
  year         = {2007},
}