Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus.
(2010) In Journal of Animal Ecology 79. p.109116 Abstract
 1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable... (More)
 1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in longlived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1469824
 author
 Jonzén, Niclas ^{LU} ; Pople, Tony; Knape, Jonas ^{LU} and Sköld, Martin
 organization
 publishing date
 2010
 type
 Contribution to journal
 publication status
 published
 subject
 in
 Journal of Animal Ecology
 volume
 79
 pages
 109  116
 publisher
 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd
 external identifiers

 wos:000272656600013
 scopus:72449189708
 ISSN
 13652656
 DOI
 10.1111/j.13652656.2009.01601.x
 language
 English
 LU publication?
 yes
 id
 d080dba044f04af18924e437b15d6786 (old id 1469824)
 date added to LUP
 20090908 13:59:15
 date last changed
 20180529 11:09:05
@article{d080dba044f04af18924e437b15d6786, abstract = {1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in longlived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.}, author = {Jonzén, Niclas and Pople, Tony and Knape, Jonas and Sköld, Martin}, issn = {13652656}, language = {eng}, pages = {109116}, publisher = {Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd}, series = {Journal of Animal Ecology}, title = {Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus.}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.13652656.2009.01601.x}, volume = {79}, year = {2010}, }