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Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics

Ranta, E; Lundberg, Per LU ; Kaitala, V and Laakso, J (2000) In Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences 267(1455). p.1851-1856
Abstract
Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view Mt followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise... (More)
Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view Mt followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated hv the external noise. (Less)
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author
organization
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
volume
267
issue
1455
pages
1851 - 1856
publisher
Royal Society
external identifiers
  • scopus:0034703494
ISSN
1471-2954
DOI
10.1098/rspb.2000.1220
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
cbdc4ac1-2e83-42d8-8f2c-5e775bfcd1ca (old id 147591)
date added to LUP
2007-07-03 15:34:31
date last changed
2017-08-06 03:40:26
@article{cbdc4ac1-2e83-42d8-8f2c-5e775bfcd1ca,
  abstract     = {Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view Mt followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated hv the external noise.},
  author       = {Ranta, E and Lundberg, Per and Kaitala, V and Laakso, J},
  issn         = {1471-2954},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1455},
  pages        = {1851--1856},
  publisher    = {Royal Society},
  series       = {Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences},
  title        = {Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2000.1220},
  volume       = {267},
  year         = {2000},
}