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Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

Willcock, Simon ; Hooftman, Danny A.P. ; Neugarten, Rachel A. ; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca ; Barredo, José I. ; Hickler, Thomas LU ; Kindermann, Georg ; Lewis, Amy R. ; Lindeskog, Mats LU and Martínez-López, Javier , et al. (2023) In Science Advances 9(14).
Abstract

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide... (More)

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local-to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Science Advances
volume
9
issue
14
article number
eadf5492
publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
external identifiers
  • pmid:37027474
  • scopus:85152039074
ISSN
2375-2548
DOI
10.1126/sciadv.adf5492
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
1479d8e8-d111-4931-b369-a046ab8fd338
date added to LUP
2023-07-14 09:12:52
date last changed
2024-04-19 23:25:33
@article{1479d8e8-d111-4931-b369-a046ab8fd338,
  abstract     = {{<p>Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local-to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.</p>}},
  author       = {{Willcock, Simon and Hooftman, Danny A.P. and Neugarten, Rachel A. and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca and Barredo, José I. and Hickler, Thomas and Kindermann, Georg and Lewis, Amy R. and Lindeskog, Mats and Martínez-López, Javier and Bullock, James M.}},
  issn         = {{2375-2548}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{14}},
  publisher    = {{American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}},
  series       = {{Science Advances}},
  title        = {{Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adf5492}},
  doi          = {{10.1126/sciadv.adf5492}},
  volume       = {{9}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}