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Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Sala, O E; Chapin, F S; Armesto, J J; Berlow, E; Bloomfield, J; Dirzo, R; Huber-Sanwald, E; Huenneke, L F; Jackson, R B and Kinzig, A, et al. (2000) In Science 287(5459). p.1770-1774
Abstract
Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest... (More)
Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change. (Less)
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publication status
published
subject
in
Science
volume
287
issue
5459
pages
1770 - 1774
publisher
The American Association for the Advancement of Science
external identifiers
  • scopus:0034629324
ISSN
1095-9203
DOI
10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
language
English
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yes
id
9456b13a-7f2d-4038-af68-2bb3f357cff6 (old id 152919)
date added to LUP
2007-07-02 14:03:30
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2017-08-13 04:32:20
@article{9456b13a-7f2d-4038-af68-2bb3f357cff6,
  abstract     = {Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.},
  author       = {Sala, O E and Chapin, F S and Armesto, J J and Berlow, E and Bloomfield, J and Dirzo, R and Huber-Sanwald, E and Huenneke, L F and Jackson, R B and Kinzig, A and Leemans, R and Lodge, D M and Mooney, H A and Oesterheld, M and Poff, N L and Sykes, Martin and Walker, B H and Walker, M and Wall, D H},
  issn         = {1095-9203},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {5459},
  pages        = {1770--1774},
  publisher    = {The American Association for the Advancement of Science},
  series       = {Science},
  title        = {Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770},
  volume       = {287},
  year         = {2000},
}