Advanced

Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change-Range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response

Kramer, Koen; Degen, Bernd; Buschbom, Jutta; Hickler, Thomas LU ; Thuiller, Wilfried; Sykes, Martin LU and de Winter, Wim (2010) In Forest Ecology and Management 259(11). p.2213-2222
Abstract
We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in... (More)
We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in population size. Thus, an adaptive response of functional traits of small populations at the leading and trailing edges of the distribution is possible based on genetic diversity available in the local population, even within a period of 2-3 generations. We conclude that the adaptive responses of key functional traits should not be ignored in climate change impact assessment on beech. Adaptation to the local environment may lead to genetic and phenotypic structured populations over the species area already in few generations, depending on the forest management system applied. We recommend taking local differentiation into account in a future generation of process-based species area models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Modelling, Adaptive response, diversity, Genetic, Abundance, Species area, Fagus sylvatica, Climate change, BIOMOD, LPJ-GUESS, Eco-Gene, ForGEM
in
Forest Ecology and Management
volume
259
issue
11
pages
2213 - 2222
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000277867000010
  • scopus:77950866247
ISSN
1872-7042
DOI
10.1016/j.foreco.2009.12.023
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2a633f2f-dd06-49e7-9d01-3cb9d54f38ae (old id 1617515)
date added to LUP
2010-06-21 15:29:16
date last changed
2018-05-29 11:01:02
@article{2a633f2f-dd06-49e7-9d01-3cb9d54f38ae,
  abstract     = {We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in population size. Thus, an adaptive response of functional traits of small populations at the leading and trailing edges of the distribution is possible based on genetic diversity available in the local population, even within a period of 2-3 generations. We conclude that the adaptive responses of key functional traits should not be ignored in climate change impact assessment on beech. Adaptation to the local environment may lead to genetic and phenotypic structured populations over the species area already in few generations, depending on the forest management system applied. We recommend taking local differentiation into account in a future generation of process-based species area models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Kramer, Koen and Degen, Bernd and Buschbom, Jutta and Hickler, Thomas and Thuiller, Wilfried and Sykes, Martin and de Winter, Wim},
  issn         = {1872-7042},
  keyword      = {Modelling,Adaptive response,diversity,Genetic,Abundance,Species area,Fagus sylvatica,Climate change,BIOMOD,LPJ-GUESS,Eco-Gene,ForGEM},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {2213--2222},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Forest Ecology and Management},
  title        = {Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change-Range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.12.023},
  volume       = {259},
  year         = {2010},
}