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Climate change and the optimal arrival of migratory birds

Jonzén, Niclas LU ; Hedenström, Anders LU and Lundberg, Per LU (2007) In Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences 274(1607). p.269-274
Abstract
Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e. g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food... (More)
Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e. g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food distribution, the degree of competition for territories and the risk of mortality. In general, the optimal shift in arrival date should never be as extreme as the shift in food peak date. Our results also show that we should expect the high variation of trends in arrival date observed among migratory birds, even if migration and information about climate change were unconstrained. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
volume
274
issue
1607
pages
269 - 274
publisher
Royal Society
external identifiers
  • wos:000242765400014
  • scopus:39049184507
ISSN
1471-2954
DOI
10.1098/rspb.2006.3719
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a1ef62b2-2fe8-4ebf-a22a-e1534faedcea (old id 167022)
date added to LUP
2007-07-03 12:39:56
date last changed
2017-11-19 04:09:42
@article{a1ef62b2-2fe8-4ebf-a22a-e1534faedcea,
  abstract     = {Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e. g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food distribution, the degree of competition for territories and the risk of mortality. In general, the optimal shift in arrival date should never be as extreme as the shift in food peak date. Our results also show that we should expect the high variation of trends in arrival date observed among migratory birds, even if migration and information about climate change were unconstrained.},
  author       = {Jonzén, Niclas and Hedenström, Anders and Lundberg, Per},
  issn         = {1471-2954},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1607},
  pages        = {269--274},
  publisher    = {Royal Society},
  series       = {Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences},
  title        = {Climate change and the optimal arrival of migratory birds},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3719},
  volume       = {274},
  year         = {2007},
}