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Predicting Acidification Recovery at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire: Evaluation of Four Models

Tominaga, Koji; Aherne, Julian; Watmough, Shaun A.; Alveteg, Mattias LU ; Cosby, Bernard J.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Posch, Maximilian and Pourmokhtarian, Afshin (2010) In Environmental Science & Technology 44(23). p.9003-9009
Abstract
The performance and prediction uncertainty (owing to parameter and structural uncertainties) of four dynamic watershed acidification models (MAGIC, PnET-BGC, SAFE, and VSD) were assessed by systematically applying them to data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, where long-term records of precipitation and stream chemistry were available. In order to facilitate systematic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation was used to randomly generate common model input data sets (n ) 10 000) from parameter distributions; input data were subsequently translated among models to retain consistency. The model simulations were objectively calibrated against observed data (streamwater: 1963-2004, soil: 1983). The ensemble of... (More)
The performance and prediction uncertainty (owing to parameter and structural uncertainties) of four dynamic watershed acidification models (MAGIC, PnET-BGC, SAFE, and VSD) were assessed by systematically applying them to data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, where long-term records of precipitation and stream chemistry were available. In order to facilitate systematic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation was used to randomly generate common model input data sets (n ) 10 000) from parameter distributions; input data were subsequently translated among models to retain consistency. The model simulations were objectively calibrated against observed data (streamwater: 1963-2004, soil: 1983). The ensemble of calibrated models was used to assess future response of soil and stream chemistry to reduced sulfur deposition at the HBEF. Although both hindcast (1850-1962) and forecast (2005-2100) predictions were qualitatively similar across the four models, the temporal pattern of key indicators of acidification recovery (stream acid neutralizing capacity and soil base saturation) differed substantially. The range in predictions resulted from differences in model structure and their associated posterior parameter distributions. These differences can be accommodated by employing multiple models (ensemble analysis) but have implications for individual model applications. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Environmental Science & Technology
volume
44
issue
23
pages
9003 - 9009
publisher
The American Chemical Society
external identifiers
  • pmid:21028800
  • wos:000284523400035
  • scopus:78650291124
ISSN
1520-5851
DOI
10.1021/es102243j
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2962336e-3e88-4262-bb15-bfb931cb9ade (old id 1710052)
date added to LUP
2010-10-29 09:34:54
date last changed
2018-05-29 10:50:22
@article{2962336e-3e88-4262-bb15-bfb931cb9ade,
  abstract     = {The performance and prediction uncertainty (owing to parameter and structural uncertainties) of four dynamic watershed acidification models (MAGIC, PnET-BGC, SAFE, and VSD) were assessed by systematically applying them to data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, where long-term records of precipitation and stream chemistry were available. In order to facilitate systematic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation was used to randomly generate common model input data sets (n ) 10 000) from parameter distributions; input data were subsequently translated among models to retain consistency. The model simulations were objectively calibrated against observed data (streamwater: 1963-2004, soil: 1983). The ensemble of calibrated models was used to assess future response of soil and stream chemistry to reduced sulfur deposition at the HBEF. Although both hindcast (1850-1962) and forecast (2005-2100) predictions were qualitatively similar across the four models, the temporal pattern of key indicators of acidification recovery (stream acid neutralizing capacity and soil base saturation) differed substantially. The range in predictions resulted from differences in model structure and their associated posterior parameter distributions. These differences can be accommodated by employing multiple models (ensemble analysis) but have implications for individual model applications.},
  author       = {Tominaga, Koji and Aherne, Julian and Watmough, Shaun A. and Alveteg, Mattias and Cosby, Bernard J. and Driscoll, Charles T. and Posch, Maximilian and Pourmokhtarian, Afshin},
  issn         = {1520-5851},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {23},
  pages        = {9003--9009},
  publisher    = {The American Chemical Society},
  series       = {Environmental Science & Technology},
  title        = {Predicting Acidification Recovery at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire: Evaluation of Four Models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es102243j},
  volume       = {44},
  year         = {2010},
}