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Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Gallego-Sala, Angela LU ; Clark, Joanna; House, Joanna; Orr, Harriet; Prentice, I Colin; Smith, Pete; Farewell, Thimothy and Chapman, Stephen (2010) In Climate Research 45(1). p.151-162
Abstract
Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space... (More)
Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Bioclimatic envelope · Model · Blanket peatlands · Peat · Climate change · Great Britain
in
Climate Research
volume
45
issue
1
pages
151 - 162
publisher
Inter-Research
external identifiers
  • wos:000285769100011
  • scopus:79551529465
ISSN
1616-1572
DOI
10.3354/cr00911
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0607cf79-a29d-463a-800a-68caea37052b (old id 1745111)
alternative location
http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/special/BUppp4.pdf
date added to LUP
2011-07-11 11:13:50
date last changed
2018-06-24 03:00:11
@article{0607cf79-a29d-463a-800a-68caea37052b,
  abstract     = {Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.},
  author       = {Gallego-Sala, Angela and Clark, Joanna and House, Joanna and Orr, Harriet and Prentice, I Colin and Smith, Pete and Farewell, Thimothy and Chapman, Stephen},
  issn         = {1616-1572},
  keyword      = {Bioclimatic envelope · Model · Blanket peatlands · Peat · Climate change · Great Britain},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {151--162},
  publisher    = {Inter-Research},
  series       = {Climate Research},
  title        = {Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00911},
  volume       = {45},
  year         = {2010},
}