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Simulation of Water Level Fluctuations in Kettle Holes Using a Time Series Model

Lehsten, Dörte LU ; von Asmuth, Jos R. and Kleyer, Michael (2011) In Wetlands 31(3). p.511-520
Abstract
Kettle holes are widespread in moraine landscapes. Their hydrological properties may be very vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. To increase our knowledge of how kettle holes function and how they may be affected by climate change requires a model that can be applied to a variety of them regardless of their properties. We used the PIRFICT time series model to simulate the water levels in kettle holes over the last 50 years. For model calibration we applied time series of two-year lengths. We observed correlations between climate indices and water level statistics with a delayed response of one year. The results show a decrease in autumn low water levels and an increase in water level fluctuations. These effects correspond to... (More)
Kettle holes are widespread in moraine landscapes. Their hydrological properties may be very vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. To increase our knowledge of how kettle holes function and how they may be affected by climate change requires a model that can be applied to a variety of them regardless of their properties. We used the PIRFICT time series model to simulate the water levels in kettle holes over the last 50 years. For model calibration we applied time series of two-year lengths. We observed correlations between climate indices and water level statistics with a delayed response of one year. The results show a decrease in autumn low water levels and an increase in water level fluctuations. These effects correspond to observed increased summer evaporation and winter precipitation, and imply that the habitat quality dynamic of kettle holes depends on climatic conditions. With the prognosis of even warmer and dryer summers in Europe in the future, conservation strategies for kettle holes should include the effects of climate change. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, Hydrology, PIRFICT model, Pond, Pool
in
Wetlands
volume
31
issue
3
pages
511 - 520
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000290681200007
  • scopus:85027931410
ISSN
0277-5212
DOI
10.1007/s13157-011-0174-7
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0a3f8d41-57a0-4975-ba70-ddeade241bdd (old id 1986217)
date added to LUP
2011-06-29 14:37:17
date last changed
2017-10-01 04:16:08
@article{0a3f8d41-57a0-4975-ba70-ddeade241bdd,
  abstract     = {Kettle holes are widespread in moraine landscapes. Their hydrological properties may be very vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. To increase our knowledge of how kettle holes function and how they may be affected by climate change requires a model that can be applied to a variety of them regardless of their properties. We used the PIRFICT time series model to simulate the water levels in kettle holes over the last 50 years. For model calibration we applied time series of two-year lengths. We observed correlations between climate indices and water level statistics with a delayed response of one year. The results show a decrease in autumn low water levels and an increase in water level fluctuations. These effects correspond to observed increased summer evaporation and winter precipitation, and imply that the habitat quality dynamic of kettle holes depends on climatic conditions. With the prognosis of even warmer and dryer summers in Europe in the future, conservation strategies for kettle holes should include the effects of climate change.},
  author       = {Lehsten, Dörte and von Asmuth, Jos R. and Kleyer, Michael},
  issn         = {0277-5212},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Hydrology,PIRFICT model,Pond,Pool},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {511--520},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Wetlands},
  title        = {Simulation of Water Level Fluctuations in Kettle Holes Using a Time Series Model},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13157-011-0174-7},
  volume       = {31},
  year         = {2011},
}