Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect : A crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces
(2015) In Climate Research 65. p.87-105- Abstract
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well... (More)
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.
(Less)
- author
- organization
- publishing date
- 2015
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Climate, Crop model, Impact response surface, IRS, Sensitivity analysis, Wheat, Yield
- in
- Climate Research
- volume
- 65
- pages
- 19 pages
- publisher
- Inter-Research
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:84940558272
- ISSN
- 0936-577X
- DOI
- 10.3354/cr01322
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © Inter-Research 2015.
- id
- 20b01139-9992-4d96-bd1b-d490b5e5a566
- date added to LUP
- 2025-10-08 15:06:44
- date last changed
- 2025-10-14 12:23:31
@article{20b01139-9992-4d96-bd1b-d490b5e5a566,
abstract = {{<p>This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO<sub>2</sub> concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.</p>}},
author = {{Pirttioja, N. and Carter, T. R. and Fronzek, S. and Bindi, M. and Hoffmann, H. and Palosuo, T. and Ruiz-Ramos, M. and Tao, F. and Trnka, M. and Acutis, M. and Asseng, S. and Baranowski, P. and Basso, B. and Bodin, P. and Buis, S. and Cammarano, D. and Deligios, P. and Destain, M. F. and Dumont, B. and Ewert, F. and Ferrise, R. and François, L. and Gaiser, T. and Hlavinka, P. and Jacquemin, I. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Kollas, C. and Krzyszczak, J. and Lorite, I. J. and Minet, J. and Minguez, M. I. and Montesino, M. and Moriondo, M. and Müller, C. and Nendel, C. and Öztürk, I. and Perego, A. and Rodríguez, A. and Ruane, A. C. and Ruget, F. and Sanna, M. and Semenov, M. A. and Slawinski, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Supit, I. and Waha, K. and Wang, E. and Wu, L. and Zhao, Z. and Rötter, R. P.}},
issn = {{0936-577X}},
keywords = {{Climate; Crop model; Impact response surface; IRS; Sensitivity analysis; Wheat; Yield}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{87--105}},
publisher = {{Inter-Research}},
series = {{Climate Research}},
title = {{Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect : A crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01322}},
doi = {{10.3354/cr01322}},
volume = {{65}},
year = {{2015}},
}