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Modeling dengue outbreaks

Otero, Marcelo; Barmak, Daniel H.; Dorso, Claudio O.; Solari, Hernan G. and Natiello, Mario LU (2011) In Mathematical Biosciences 232(2). p.87-95
Abstract
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an... (More)
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Epidemiology, Dengue, Individual based model, Compartmental model, Stochastic
in
Mathematical Biosciences
volume
232
issue
2
pages
87 - 95
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000293671600001
  • scopus:79960148296
ISSN
0025-5564
DOI
10.1016/j.mbs.2011.04.006
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f3cf362e-3e2c-4a4a-a39d-be4aafafbbe4 (old id 2162864)
date added to LUP
2011-09-20 12:09:35
date last changed
2017-05-28 04:10:29
@article{f3cf362e-3e2c-4a4a-a39d-be4aafafbbe4,
  abstract     = {We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Otero, Marcelo and Barmak, Daniel H. and Dorso, Claudio O. and Solari, Hernan G. and Natiello, Mario},
  issn         = {0025-5564},
  keyword      = {Epidemiology,Dengue,Individual based model,Compartmental model,Stochastic},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {87--95},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Mathematical Biosciences},
  title        = {Modeling dengue outbreaks},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2011.04.006},
  volume       = {232},
  year         = {2011},
}