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Towards evolutionary predictions : Current promises and challenges

Wortel, Meike T ; Agashe, Deepa ; Bailey, Susan F ; Bank, Claudia ; Bisschop, Karen ; Blankers, Thomas ; Cairns, Johannes LU orcid ; Colizzi, Enrico Sandro ; Cusseddu, Davide and Desai, Michael M , et al. (2023) In Evolutionary Applications 16(1). p.3-21
Abstract

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In... (More)

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
in
Evolutionary Applications
volume
16
issue
1
pages
3 - 21
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:85144025933
  • pmid:36699126
ISSN
1752-4571
DOI
10.1111/eva.13513
language
English
LU publication?
no
additional info
© 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
id
21d89f9e-53be-4bdd-9e52-2a991f146d12
date added to LUP
2026-03-05 09:25:15
date last changed
2026-10-04 22:04:12
@article{21d89f9e-53be-4bdd-9e52-2a991f146d12,
  abstract     = {{<p>Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.</p>}},
  author       = {{Wortel, Meike T and Agashe, Deepa and Bailey, Susan F and Bank, Claudia and Bisschop, Karen and Blankers, Thomas and Cairns, Johannes and Colizzi, Enrico Sandro and Cusseddu, Davide and Desai, Michael M and van Dijk, Bram and Egas, Martijn and Ellers, Jacintha and Groot, Astrid T and Heckel, David G and Johnson, Marcelle L and Kraaijeveld, Ken and Krug, Joachim and Laan, Liedewij and Lässig, Michael and Lind, Peter A and Meijer, Jeroen and Noble, Luke M and Okasha, Samir and Rainey, Paul B and Rozen, Daniel E and Shitut, Shraddha and Tans, Sander J and Tenaillon, Olivier and Teotónio, Henrique and de Visser, J Arjan G M and Visser, Marcel E and Vroomans, Renske M A and Werner, Gijsbert D A and Wertheim, Bregje and Pennings, Pleuni S}},
  issn         = {{1752-4571}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{3--21}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
  series       = {{Evolutionary Applications}},
  title        = {{Towards evolutionary predictions : Current promises and challenges}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13513}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/eva.13513}},
  volume       = {{16}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}