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Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Bolmgren, Kjell LU ; Betancourt, Julio L. and Cleland, Elsa E. (2011) In Global Change Biology 17(12). p.3633-3643
Abstract
Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology - the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing... (More)
Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology - the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
environmental filtering, growing-degree day models, niche conservatism, photoperiod, temperature sensitivity, temporal niche
in
Global Change Biology
volume
17
issue
12
pages
3633 - 3643
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000296710600010
  • scopus:80054682938
ISSN
1354-1013
DOI
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02515.x
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ac827064-c961-491a-b6bf-249cff8f13ae (old id 2252921)
date added to LUP
2011-12-22 09:29:36
date last changed
2017-11-12 03:01:43
@article{ac827064-c961-491a-b6bf-249cff8f13ae,
  abstract     = {Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology - the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.},
  author       = {Pau, Stephanie and Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Davies, T. Jonathan and Kraft, Nathan J. B. and Bolmgren, Kjell and Betancourt, Julio L. and Cleland, Elsa E.},
  issn         = {1354-1013},
  keyword      = {environmental filtering,growing-degree day models,niche conservatism,photoperiod,temperature sensitivity,temporal niche},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {12},
  pages        = {3633--3643},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Global Change Biology},
  title        = {Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02515.x},
  volume       = {17},
  year         = {2011},
}