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Quantifying error and uncertainty in CFAST 2.0 temperature predictions

Lundin, Johan LU (2005) In Journal of Fire Sciences 23(5). p.365-388
Abstract
In this paper the predictive capability of the smoke transport model CFAST 2.0 is evaluated for five different scenario configurations. The evaluation is made by statistical analysis according to a methodology presented in an earlier paper. Model predictions and experimental data, previously published, are compared and quantitative measures of the predictive capability are thus derived. With the quantitative knowledge of the model error, future predictions from the two-zone model can be adjusted so that the error is taken into account. The suitable method of adjustment depends on how the uncertainty is treated in a specific application. This can be done either by using conservative adjustments or by treating the uncertainty in the... (More)
In this paper the predictive capability of the smoke transport model CFAST 2.0 is evaluated for five different scenario configurations. The evaluation is made by statistical analysis according to a methodology presented in an earlier paper. Model predictions and experimental data, previously published, are compared and quantitative measures of the predictive capability are thus derived. With the quantitative knowledge of the model error, future predictions from the two-zone model can be adjusted so that the error is taken into account. The suitable method of adjustment depends on how the uncertainty is treated in a specific application. This can be done either by using conservative adjustments or by treating the uncertainty in the predictions as a stochastic variable. The evaluation shows that the statistical method is applicable for this purpose and that reduction of the model error can be achieved with the adjustment model for the types of scenarios subject to analysis. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Fire Sciences
volume
23
issue
5
pages
365 - 388
publisher
SAGE Publications Inc.
external identifiers
  • wos:000231449000001
  • scopus:23744451963
ISSN
0734-9041
DOI
10.1177/0734904105049173
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
86196e0b-3122-46f2-a521-4be1d3225184 (old id 226722)
date added to LUP
2007-08-23 09:07:50
date last changed
2017-01-01 07:19:52
@article{86196e0b-3122-46f2-a521-4be1d3225184,
  abstract     = {In this paper the predictive capability of the smoke transport model CFAST 2.0 is evaluated for five different scenario configurations. The evaluation is made by statistical analysis according to a methodology presented in an earlier paper. Model predictions and experimental data, previously published, are compared and quantitative measures of the predictive capability are thus derived. With the quantitative knowledge of the model error, future predictions from the two-zone model can be adjusted so that the error is taken into account. The suitable method of adjustment depends on how the uncertainty is treated in a specific application. This can be done either by using conservative adjustments or by treating the uncertainty in the predictions as a stochastic variable. The evaluation shows that the statistical method is applicable for this purpose and that reduction of the model error can be achieved with the adjustment model for the types of scenarios subject to analysis.},
  author       = {Lundin, Johan},
  issn         = {0734-9041},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {5},
  pages        = {365--388},
  publisher    = {SAGE Publications Inc.},
  series       = {Journal of Fire Sciences},
  title        = {Quantifying error and uncertainty in CFAST 2.0 temperature predictions},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0734904105049173},
  volume       = {23},
  year         = {2005},
}