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Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply, using a systems dynamics assessment model

Sverdrup, Harald LU and Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala (2011) In Applied Geochemistry 26(Suppl.). p.307-310
Abstract
A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance... (More)
A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Applied Geochemistry
volume
26
issue
Suppl.
pages
307 - 310
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000297788100086
  • scopus:79955960725
ISSN
0883-2927
DOI
10.1016/j.apgeochem.2011.03.089
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6b9243e0-9440-49e5-b97b-b03d71c78dfa (old id 2292073)
date added to LUP
2012-01-11 07:42:47
date last changed
2017-08-20 03:21:35
@article{6b9243e0-9440-49e5-b97b-b03d71c78dfa,
  abstract     = {A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Sverdrup, Harald and Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala},
  issn         = {0883-2927},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {Suppl.},
  pages        = {307--310},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Applied Geochemistry},
  title        = {Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply, using a systems dynamics assessment model},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2011.03.089},
  volume       = {26},
  year         = {2011},
}