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On quantification of error and uncertainty in two-zone models used in fire safety design

Lundin, Johan LU (2005) In Journal of Fire Sciences 23(4). p.329-354
Abstract
The error in smoke transport models have mainly been analyzed with qualitative approaches till date. The results make it difficult to perform a quantitative assessment of the model error in fire safety design applications. Even if a model has a substantial model error, it can be a very useful tool, as long as the designer is aware of the errors and the uncertainties in the predictions. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the error in model predictions and the associated uncertainties with a statistical analysis of multiple scenarios. The knowledge of the model error can then be used to adjust future model predictions in order to take the error into account explicitly. This is done with an adjustment model valid for predictions... (More)
The error in smoke transport models have mainly been analyzed with qualitative approaches till date. The results make it difficult to perform a quantitative assessment of the model error in fire safety design applications. Even if a model has a substantial model error, it can be a very useful tool, as long as the designer is aware of the errors and the uncertainties in the predictions. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the error in model predictions and the associated uncertainties with a statistical analysis of multiple scenarios. The knowledge of the model error can then be used to adjust future model predictions in order to take the error into account explicitly. This is done with an adjustment model valid for predictions during the whole pre-flashover phase of the fire scenario and not just at a single point in time. The approach taken is based on a quantitative comparison of model predictions and experimental measurements from several fire scenarios which constitute a scenario configuration. The application of the method is presented in a subsequent paper, where the model error in temperature predictions by the two-zone model CFAST 2.0 is analyzed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
model, two-zone, CFAST, smoke transport model, model uncertainty, model error, fire safety design, modeling, temperature prediction
in
Journal of Fire Sciences
volume
23
issue
4
pages
329 - 354
publisher
SAGE Publications Inc.
external identifiers
  • wos:000230140300004
  • scopus:23744481706
ISSN
0734-9041
DOI
10.1177/0734904105049172
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6e00dffb-c55d-4d23-8a67-c3829585b748 (old id 233833)
date added to LUP
2007-08-21 08:43:13
date last changed
2017-01-01 06:48:00
@article{6e00dffb-c55d-4d23-8a67-c3829585b748,
  abstract     = {The error in smoke transport models have mainly been analyzed with qualitative approaches till date. The results make it difficult to perform a quantitative assessment of the model error in fire safety design applications. Even if a model has a substantial model error, it can be a very useful tool, as long as the designer is aware of the errors and the uncertainties in the predictions. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the error in model predictions and the associated uncertainties with a statistical analysis of multiple scenarios. The knowledge of the model error can then be used to adjust future model predictions in order to take the error into account explicitly. This is done with an adjustment model valid for predictions during the whole pre-flashover phase of the fire scenario and not just at a single point in time. The approach taken is based on a quantitative comparison of model predictions and experimental measurements from several fire scenarios which constitute a scenario configuration. The application of the method is presented in a subsequent paper, where the model error in temperature predictions by the two-zone model CFAST 2.0 is analyzed.},
  author       = {Lundin, Johan},
  issn         = {0734-9041},
  keyword      = {model,two-zone,CFAST,smoke transport model,model uncertainty,model error,fire safety design,modeling,temperature prediction},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {329--354},
  publisher    = {SAGE Publications Inc.},
  series       = {Journal of Fire Sciences},
  title        = {On quantification of error and uncertainty in two-zone models used in fire safety design},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0734904105049172},
  volume       = {23},
  year         = {2005},
}