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Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

Thuiller, W; Lavorel, S; Araujo, M B; Sykes, Martin LU and Prentice, I C (2005) In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102(23). p.8245-8250
Abstract
Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and... (More)
Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximate to 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
extinction, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change storylines, species, species turnover, niche-based model
in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
volume
102
issue
23
pages
8245 - 8250
publisher
National Acad Sciences
external identifiers
  • pmid:15919825
  • wos:000229650500032
  • scopus:20444364191
ISSN
1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0409902102
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
cfa829cd-8781-41be-af40-e92cf9eab867 (old id 236395)
date added to LUP
2007-08-08 09:47:10
date last changed
2017-11-19 03:34:06
@article{cfa829cd-8781-41be-af40-e92cf9eab867,
  abstract     = {Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximate to 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.},
  author       = {Thuiller, W and Lavorel, S and Araujo, M B and Sykes, Martin and Prentice, I C},
  issn         = {1091-6490},
  keyword      = {extinction,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change storylines,species,species turnover,niche-based model},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {23},
  pages        = {8245--8250},
  publisher    = {National Acad Sciences},
  series       = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  title        = {Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0409902102},
  volume       = {102},
  year         = {2005},
}