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Distinct winter North Atlantic climate responses to tropical and extratropical eruptions over the last millennium in PMIP simulations and reconstructions

Tao, Qin LU orcid ; Shen, Cheng ; Muscheler, Raimund LU orcid and Sjolte, Jesper LU orcid (2025) In Climate of the Past 21(12). p.2561-2578
Abstract
Large tropical (TROP) volcanic eruptions can influence North Atlantic climate by inducing a positive shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), typically resulting in winter warming across northern Eurasia. However, these changes remain highly uncertain, as they may coincide with strong internal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate. In contrast, Northern Hemisphere extratropical (NHET) eruptions are proposed to have opposite impacts, but they have been comparatively less studied, and large uncertainties remain regarding the ability of climate models to capture volcanic responses. This study examines winter North Atlantic climate responses to TROP and NHET eruptions by comparing temperature and atmospheric circulation... (More)
Large tropical (TROP) volcanic eruptions can influence North Atlantic climate by inducing a positive shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), typically resulting in winter warming across northern Eurasia. However, these changes remain highly uncertain, as they may coincide with strong internal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate. In contrast, Northern Hemisphere extratropical (NHET) eruptions are proposed to have opposite impacts, but they have been comparatively less studied, and large uncertainties remain regarding the ability of climate models to capture volcanic responses. This study examines winter North Atlantic climate responses to TROP and NHET eruptions by comparing temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns from last millennium simulations with multiple proxy-based reconstructions. We find distinct differences in NAO-related climate changes in reconstructions, with TROP eruptions followed by a shift towards positive NAO and NHET eruptions associated with a negative NAO. In comparison, modelled responses exhibit a wide spread with strong dependence on the choice of volcanic forcing dataset. Notably, simulations using the latest volcanic forcing data show improved agreement with reconstructions, particularly for TROP eruptions. This model-proxy agreement provides a useful basis for investigating the mechanisms that drive positive NAO responses after TROP eruptions. However, the simulated impacts of NHET eruptions are less consistent and remain unclear. These results highlight the importance of improved volcanic forcing datasets, refined paleoclimate reconstructions, and robust statistical approaches to better constrain uncertainties in assessing volcanic impacts on North Atlantic climate. (Less)
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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
volcanic eruption, North Atlantic Oscillation, climate model, Paleoclimate reconstruction, Climate forcing
in
Climate of the Past
volume
21
issue
12
pages
18 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
1814-9332
DOI
10.5194/cp-21-2561-2025
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
237cdec6-d25b-4440-85ce-fd4422a48379
date added to LUP
2025-12-09 17:06:08
date last changed
2025-12-10 08:40:45
@article{237cdec6-d25b-4440-85ce-fd4422a48379,
  abstract     = {{Large tropical (TROP) volcanic eruptions can influence North Atlantic climate by inducing a positive shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), typically resulting in winter warming across northern Eurasia. However, these changes remain highly uncertain, as they may coincide with strong internal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate. In contrast, Northern Hemisphere extratropical (NHET) eruptions are proposed to have opposite impacts, but they have been comparatively less studied, and large uncertainties remain regarding the ability of climate models to capture volcanic responses. This study examines winter North Atlantic climate responses to TROP and NHET eruptions by comparing temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns from last millennium simulations with multiple proxy-based reconstructions. We find distinct differences in NAO-related climate changes in reconstructions, with TROP eruptions followed by a shift towards positive NAO and NHET eruptions associated with a negative NAO. In comparison, modelled responses exhibit a wide spread with strong dependence on the choice of volcanic forcing dataset. Notably, simulations using the latest volcanic forcing data show improved agreement with reconstructions, particularly for TROP eruptions. This model-proxy agreement provides a useful basis for investigating the mechanisms that drive positive NAO responses after TROP eruptions. However, the simulated impacts of NHET eruptions are less consistent and remain unclear. These results highlight the importance of improved volcanic forcing datasets, refined paleoclimate reconstructions, and robust statistical approaches to better constrain uncertainties in assessing volcanic impacts on North Atlantic climate.}},
  author       = {{Tao, Qin and Shen, Cheng and Muscheler, Raimund and Sjolte, Jesper}},
  issn         = {{1814-9332}},
  keywords     = {{volcanic eruption; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate model; Paleoclimate reconstruction; Climate forcing}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{12}},
  number       = {{12}},
  pages        = {{2561--2578}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Climate of the Past}},
  title        = {{Distinct winter North Atlantic climate responses to tropical and extratropical eruptions over the last millennium in PMIP simulations and reconstructions}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2561-2025}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/cp-21-2561-2025}},
  volume       = {{21}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}