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Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming

Makkonen, R.; Asmi, A.; Kerminen, V-M; Boy, M.; Arneth, Almut LU ; Hari, P. and Kulmala, M. (2012) In Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12(3). p.1515-1524
Abstract
The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from -1.0 W m(-2) to -1.6 W m(-2) when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m(-2) to +1.4 W m(-2). Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in... (More)
The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from -1.0 W m(-2) to -1.6 W m(-2) when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m(-2) to +1.4 W m(-2). Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in additional negative forcings of -0.1 W m(-2) (+10% DMS emissions in year 2100) and -0.5 W m(-2) (+50% BVOC emissions in year 2100). With the total aerosol forcing diminishing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
volume
12
issue
3
pages
1515 - 1524
publisher
Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
external identifiers
  • wos:000300656500018
  • scopus:84856755465
ISSN
1680-7324
DOI
10.5194/acp-12-1515-2012
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
b77334da-b158-43c8-b492-5d5dd9c8e673 (old id 2403287)
date added to LUP
2012-03-28 13:31:46
date last changed
2017-11-19 03:15:02
@article{b77334da-b158-43c8-b492-5d5dd9c8e673,
  abstract     = {The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from -1.0 W m(-2) to -1.6 W m(-2) when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m(-2) to +1.4 W m(-2). Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in additional negative forcings of -0.1 W m(-2) (+10% DMS emissions in year 2100) and -0.5 W m(-2) (+50% BVOC emissions in year 2100). With the total aerosol forcing diminishing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.},
  author       = {Makkonen, R. and Asmi, A. and Kerminen, V-M and Boy, M. and Arneth, Almut and Hari, P. and Kulmala, M.},
  issn         = {1680-7324},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {1515--1524},
  publisher    = {Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh},
  series       = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
  title        = {Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-1515-2012},
  volume       = {12},
  year         = {2012},
}