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Nonlinear multivariable analysis of SOI and local precipitation and temperature

Jin, YH; Kawamura, A; Jinn, K and Berndtsson, Ronny LU (2005) In Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 12(1). p.67-74
Abstract
Global climate variability affects important local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an easily quantifiable major driving force that gives impact on regional and local climate. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strongly nonlinear processes. Due to this, teleconnections between global-scale hydro-meteorological variables and local climate are not well understood. In this paper, we suggest to study these processes in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using a nonlinear... (More)
Global climate variability affects important local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an easily quantifiable major driving force that gives impact on regional and local climate. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strongly nonlinear processes. Due to this, teleconnections between global-scale hydro-meteorological variables and local climate are not well understood. In this paper, we suggest to study these processes in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using a nonlinear multivariable approach. This approach is based on the joint variation of these variables in the phase space. The joint phasespace variation of SOI, precipitation, and temperature is studied with the primary objective to obtain a better understanding of the dynamical evolution of local hydro-meteorological variables affected by global atmospheric-oceanic phenomena. The results from the analyses display rather clear low-order phase space trajectories when treating the time series individually. However, when plotting phase space trajectories for several time series jointly, complicated higher-order nonlinear relationships emerge between the variables. Consequently, simple data-driven prediction techniques utilizing phase-space characteristics of individual time series may prove successful. On the other hand, since either the time series are too short and/or the phase-space properties are too complex when analysing several variables jointly, it may be difficult to use multivariable statistical prediction techniques for the present investigated variables. In any case, it is essential to further pursue studies regarding links between the SOI and observed local climatic and other geophysical variables even if these links are not fully understood in physical terms. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
volume
12
issue
1
pages
67 - 74
publisher
European Geosciences Union
external identifiers
  • wos:000227946100007
  • scopus:14944365606
ISSN
1023-5809
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0f8380c4-e3c5-4efe-bdd3-cb36c36dbd93 (old id 247006)
alternative location
http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/npg/12/npg-12-67.pdf
date added to LUP
2007-08-20 12:55:34
date last changed
2017-05-14 03:25:23
@article{0f8380c4-e3c5-4efe-bdd3-cb36c36dbd93,
  abstract     = {Global climate variability affects important local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an easily quantifiable major driving force that gives impact on regional and local climate. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strongly nonlinear processes. Due to this, teleconnections between global-scale hydro-meteorological variables and local climate are not well understood. In this paper, we suggest to study these processes in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using a nonlinear multivariable approach. This approach is based on the joint variation of these variables in the phase space. The joint phasespace variation of SOI, precipitation, and temperature is studied with the primary objective to obtain a better understanding of the dynamical evolution of local hydro-meteorological variables affected by global atmospheric-oceanic phenomena. The results from the analyses display rather clear low-order phase space trajectories when treating the time series individually. However, when plotting phase space trajectories for several time series jointly, complicated higher-order nonlinear relationships emerge between the variables. Consequently, simple data-driven prediction techniques utilizing phase-space characteristics of individual time series may prove successful. On the other hand, since either the time series are too short and/or the phase-space properties are too complex when analysing several variables jointly, it may be difficult to use multivariable statistical prediction techniques for the present investigated variables. In any case, it is essential to further pursue studies regarding links between the SOI and observed local climatic and other geophysical variables even if these links are not fully understood in physical terms.},
  author       = {Jin, YH and Kawamura, A and Jinn, K and Berndtsson, Ronny},
  issn         = {1023-5809},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {67--74},
  publisher    = {European Geosciences Union},
  series       = {Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics},
  title        = {Nonlinear multivariable analysis of SOI and local precipitation and temperature},
  volume       = {12},
  year         = {2005},
}