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Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

Lorenz, Matthias W.; Gao, Lu; Ziegelbauer, Kathrin; Norata, Giuseppe Danilo; Empana, Jean Philippe; Schmidtmann, Irene; Lin, Hung Ju; McLachlan, Stela; Bokemark, Lena and Ronkainen, Kimmo, et al. (2018) In PLoS ONE 13(4).
Abstract

Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation... (More)

Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

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PLoS ONE
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13
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4
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Public Library of Science
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  • scopus:85045439183
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0191172
language
English
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yes
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25b9f4c1-5870-4c60-a278-31b9aa73b80f
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2018-04-25 14:41:40
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2018-07-26 03:00:22
@article{25b9f4c1-5870-4c60-a278-31b9aa73b80f,
  abstract     = {<p>Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.</p>},
  articleno    = {e0191172},
  author       = {Lorenz, Matthias W. and Gao, Lu and Ziegelbauer, Kathrin and Norata, Giuseppe Danilo and Empana, Jean Philippe and Schmidtmann, Irene and Lin, Hung Ju and McLachlan, Stela and Bokemark, Lena and Ronkainen, Kimmo and Amato, Mauro and Schminke, Ulf and Srinivasan, Sathanur R. and Lind, Lars and Okazaki, Shuhei and Stehouwer, Coen D.A. and Willeit, Peter and Polak, Joseph F. and Steinmetz, Helmuth and Sander, Dirk and Poppert, Holger and Desvarieux, Moise and Arfan Ikram, M. and Johnsen, Stein Harald and Staub, Daniel and Sirtori, Cesare R. and Iglseder, Bernhard and Beloqui, Oscar and Engström, Gunnar and Friera, Alfonso and Rozza, Francesco and Xie, Wuxiang and Parraga, Grace and Grigore, Liliana and Plichart, Matthieu and Blankenberg, Stefan and Su, Ta Chen and Schmidt, Caroline and Tuomainen, Tomi Pekka and Veglia, Fabrizio and Völzke, Henry and Nijpels, Giel and Willeit, Johann and Sacco, Ralph L. and Franco, Oscar H. and Uthoff, Heiko and Hedblad, Bo and Suarez, Carmen and Izzo, Raffaele and Rosvall, Maria and , },
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {04},
  number       = {4},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science},
  series       = {PLoS ONE},
  title        = {Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191172},
  volume       = {13},
  year         = {2018},
}