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Statistical downscaling and scenario construction of precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden

Linderson, Maj-Lena LU ; Achberger, C and Chen, D L (2004) In Nordic Hydrology 35(3). p.261-278
Abstract
Statistical downscaling models for precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in the future Scanian precipitation climate due to projected changes in the atmospheric composition. The models are based on multiple linear regression, linking large-scale predictors at monthly time resolution to regional statistics of daily precipitation on a monthly basis. To account for spatial precipitation variability within the area, the precipitation statistics were derived for different regions in Scania. The final downscaling models, developed for different regions and seasons, use atmospheric circulation, large-scale humidity and precipitation as predictors. Among the precipitation statistics... (More)
Statistical downscaling models for precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in the future Scanian precipitation climate due to projected changes in the atmospheric composition. The models are based on multiple linear regression, linking large-scale predictors at monthly time resolution to regional statistics of daily precipitation on a monthly basis. To account for spatial precipitation variability within the area, the precipitation statistics were derived for different regions in Scania. The final downscaling models, developed for different regions and seasons, use atmospheric circulation, large-scale humidity and precipitation as predictors. Among the precipitation statistics examined, only the models for estimating the mean precipitation and the frequency of wet days were skilful. Based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model 1 (CGCM1), a future scenario of these two statistics was created. The downscaled scenario shows a significant increase of the annual mean precipitation by about 10% and a slight decrease in the frequency of wet days, indicating an increase in the precipitation amounts as well as in the precipitation intensity. The main increase of precipitation amounts and intensity occur during winter, while the summer precipitation amounts decrease slightly. The seasonal changes found in precipitation are likely attributed to changes in the westerly flow of the atmospheric circulation. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
southern, scenario, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, humidity, statistical downscaling, Sweden
in
Nordic Hydrology
volume
35
issue
3
pages
261 - 278
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000223531300007
  • scopus:4143073797
ISSN
1996-9694
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
53f5b17f-187e-4768-9cb4-71d20e2ab8be (old id 269213)
alternative location
http://www.iwaponline.com/nh/035/nh0350261.htm
date added to LUP
2007-10-24 19:19:59
date last changed
2017-05-28 03:31:41
@article{53f5b17f-187e-4768-9cb4-71d20e2ab8be,
  abstract     = {Statistical downscaling models for precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in the future Scanian precipitation climate due to projected changes in the atmospheric composition. The models are based on multiple linear regression, linking large-scale predictors at monthly time resolution to regional statistics of daily precipitation on a monthly basis. To account for spatial precipitation variability within the area, the precipitation statistics were derived for different regions in Scania. The final downscaling models, developed for different regions and seasons, use atmospheric circulation, large-scale humidity and precipitation as predictors. Among the precipitation statistics examined, only the models for estimating the mean precipitation and the frequency of wet days were skilful. Based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model 1 (CGCM1), a future scenario of these two statistics was created. The downscaled scenario shows a significant increase of the annual mean precipitation by about 10% and a slight decrease in the frequency of wet days, indicating an increase in the precipitation amounts as well as in the precipitation intensity. The main increase of precipitation amounts and intensity occur during winter, while the summer precipitation amounts decrease slightly. The seasonal changes found in precipitation are likely attributed to changes in the westerly flow of the atmospheric circulation.},
  author       = {Linderson, Maj-Lena and Achberger, C and Chen, D L},
  issn         = {1996-9694},
  keyword      = {southern,scenario,precipitation,atmospheric circulation,humidity,statistical downscaling,Sweden},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {261--278},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Nordic Hydrology},
  title        = {Statistical downscaling and scenario construction of precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden},
  volume       = {35},
  year         = {2004},
}