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From probabilistics to determinism: an essay on risk assessment and decisionmaking in sociotechnical systems

Östberg, Gustaf LU (2004) In Interdisciplinary Science Reviews 29(1). p.96-109
Abstract
Probabilistic analysis is the usual starting point for sociotechnical risk assessments aimed at deciding whether or not a particular risk is acceptable. However, the available probabilistic evidence is usually insufficient as a basis for such decisions, and so the assessment has to be supplemented by a judgemental process of a more deterministic nature. This concluding phase in decisionmaking is essentially non-rational, involving amongst other things intuition and image formation. The conceptual incompatibility between the final stage in risk assessment and the preceding probabilistic analysis means that it is not possible to arrive at an overall quantitative account of the decisionmaking process.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Interdisciplinary Science Reviews
volume
29
issue
1
pages
96 - 109
publisher
Maney Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000222138800009
  • scopus:2942631353
ISSN
0308-0188
DOI
10.1179/030801803225008811
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6984d769-1cf7-45d9-87f8-eaa66cf2b4e0 (old id 274540)
date added to LUP
2007-10-29 12:33:28
date last changed
2017-01-01 06:37:54
@article{6984d769-1cf7-45d9-87f8-eaa66cf2b4e0,
  abstract     = {Probabilistic analysis is the usual starting point for sociotechnical risk assessments aimed at deciding whether or not a particular risk is acceptable. However, the available probabilistic evidence is usually insufficient as a basis for such decisions, and so the assessment has to be supplemented by a judgemental process of a more deterministic nature. This concluding phase in decisionmaking is essentially non-rational, involving amongst other things intuition and image formation. The conceptual incompatibility between the final stage in risk assessment and the preceding probabilistic analysis means that it is not possible to arrive at an overall quantitative account of the decisionmaking process.},
  author       = {Östberg, Gustaf},
  issn         = {0308-0188},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {96--109},
  publisher    = {Maney Publishing},
  series       = {Interdisciplinary Science Reviews},
  title        = {From probabilistics to determinism: an essay on risk assessment and decisionmaking in sociotechnical systems},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1179/030801803225008811},
  volume       = {29},
  year         = {2004},
}